Macro analyst and Wall Street veteran Jordi Visser says Bitcoin may be in the midst of an unofficial initial coin offering (ICO) as OG coin holders change hands and fresh blood scoops up tokens and distributes supply to more people.
On Saturday’s episode of Entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano’s podcast and in a post on Substack, Visser said older coins that have been dormant for years are starting to move, “not all at once. We’re not panicking, but steadily,” and new investors are coming in and “buying on the edge.”
“In the traditional world, we call this moment an IPO. It’s the moment when the early believers put in cash, the founders get rich, and the venture capitalists give the money back to the limited partners,” he said.
“The excitement of concentration is giving way to sustainability of distribution. Early believers are buying at higher prices and passing the torch to long-term holders with different motivations. This is what success looks like. This is a Bitcoin IPO.”
Bitcoin remains flat due to consolidation movement
Bitcoin (BTC) has fluctuated between $106,786 and $115,957 over the past seven days. Visser said that once a company goes public and early investors begin selling their positions, stock prices often firm up, even during broad market upswings.
New investors are accumulating Bitcoin, but are moving cautiously, waiting for the broader market distribution to complete before becoming more aggressive.
“What’s the result? It’s a sideways grind that everyone is into. The fundamentals are good. The overall market is rebounding. But the stocks… are just sitting there,” Visser said. “Integration is frustrating. Emotions are terrible.”
“This is exactly the pattern you see when the lock-up period expires after a big IPO. Stocks don’t crash. They consolidate. Early investors sell. New long-term holders accumulate. Ownership moves from visionaries to institutional investors,” he added.
Faith remains strong despite price pressures
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, an index that tracks market sentiment towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, has returned a “fear” rating since Wednesday, as did its average fear rating for the previous week.
However, Visser believes there is still confidence in the underlying asset, as evidenced by ongoing exchange-traded fund approvals, the Bitcoin network’s hash rate hitting new highs, and the growing adoption of stablecoins.
“In a bear market, there are no buyers. Everyone wants out, no one wants in, so the price collapses. But look at what’s actually happening. Instead of collapsing, Bitcoin is holding its value. Every dip is bought. The price is not making new lows, it’s holding the range,” Wisse said.
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“The divergence from risk assets is disruptive. But the fundamentals are stronger than ever, and the structure, from concentrated to decentralized holdings, is exactly what Bitcoin needs to graduate from a revolutionary experiment to a durable financial asset.”
IPO process continues
Visser said the “IPO” phase is likely to last for a while, typically between six and 18 months, and while Bitcoin moves faster than standard assets, the process is still around six months on the timeline.
Once that’s done, one of the consequences could be lower volatility, as ownership will be spread out to more people than just the initial holders and founders.
“For now, I expect the price decline to continue. I expect Bitcoin to continue to frustrate people as it does not bounce back in risk assets. I expect sentiment to remain negative for some time, but there is no signal, so we need to be careful. There is good news already, so it will start.”
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