Hedera (HBAR) is up over 14% this week, rebounding from recent weakness. However, despite this short-term rebound, HBAR price remains down nearly 9% this month, a clear downward trend.
Mixed signals between indicators now raise bigger questions. Are the whales signaling a hidden crash that smart money and retail traders are ignoring?
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Smart money and retail remain bullish despite warning signs
The Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the movements of experienced HBAR traders, has been rising since October 26, hitting new highs and breaking above the signal line. This usually indicates that informed traders are expecting a rebound or believe the worst is over. Even after the temporary decline, the SMI remains close to 1.08, maintaining a cautiously bullish short-term outlook.
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If the index is above that mark, the bias remains positive. However, if it dips below 1.08, sentiment could quickly reverse.
Retail traders also seem optimistic. Maybe a little more than smart money. The Money Flow Index (MFI), which measures buying and selling pressure using both price and volume, jumped from nearly 35 to 69.4 in two weeks. This sharp rise indicates new inflows and increased retail interest, and is a typical sign of small traders buying on the edge in anticipation of a rebound.
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In other words, smart money and the retail industry still see potential upside in HBAR prices. But that confidence may be short-lived, as the whale quietly slips away.
Whales retreat while smart money bets on a rebound
While the signals from small HBAR traders and institutional investors appear to be bullish, large wallet holders tell a different story. According to the data, since October 21, more than 100 million HBAR accounts have decreased from 41.75% to 40.65% of the total supply. This means that about 1.1% of these whales’ holdings were lost within two weeks.
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This would result in at least 110 million HBAR leaving large wallets. At today’s prices, that means at least $20.9 million worth of money went to the whales. This is a notable change at a time when small traders are turning bullish.
This is a typical division. Smart money and retailers think the bottom is out, but the whales appear to be bracing for further declines. If the whales are indeed leading the correction, the charts should start showing early signs, and they are already doing so.
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HBAR price chart shows ‘hidden’ bearish divergence or crash trigger
On the daily chart, HBAR price has been trading within a narrow range between $0.219 and $0.154 since October 11, indicating indecision among buyers and sellers. Probably traders and whales.
From October 6th to October 29th, prices recorded lower highs, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which tracks price momentum, recorded higher highs. This pattern is a hidden bearish divergence. A setting that often suggests a continuation of an existing downtrend. For HBARs, corrections can occur if the key level is corrupted.
Currently, HBAR price is holding above $0.189, but losing that support could trigger a decline to $0.168. If the selling continues, the next major support lies around $0.154, below which the token could fall to $0.119.
A break below $0.168 will confirm the bearish continuation. If the price exceeds this, short-term price consolidation may be possible. For now, the odds are leaning towards a significant decline in HBAR prices. That is likely unless new buying volumes come in to offset the whale exit currently underway.