For Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of the year, the planet will almost have to align, according to Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital.
Several crypto industry executives recently doubled their predictions that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $250,000 by the end of the year.
“There are only two and a half months left until the end of the year,” Novogratz said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, adding:
“It would take a lot of outrageous things to really get that much momentum.”
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading at $107,649 at the time of publication of this article, which means it should soar about 133% within the next 10 weeks.
Novogratz says you should own $100,000 in Bitcoin
Novogratz said that in a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin “should hold” around $100,000, a key psychological level that it first breached in December 2024, shortly after Donald Trump was re-elected as US president.
Novogratz said the downside should be at or near the $100,000 price level.
Bitcoin nearly retested that level a while ago after President Trump’s 100% tariffs on China caused the market to drop to $102,000 on October 10th.
“On the upside, it doesn’t really accelerate until you pull out $125,000,” he said, referring to Bitcoin’s recent high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, adding:
“So the most likely outlook would be in the range between 100 and 120 or 125, unless you take out the upside.”
Novogratz said a potential catalyst for a return to record highs could come from President Trump’s “premature” move to influence the Federal Reserve or whether the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act, known as the Clarity Act, is passed this year.
“Those are the two types of catalysts I think of,” he said. Since the first interest rate cut of the year in September, the entire crypto industry has been closely watching the Fed’s interest rate decisions as a catalyst for a bullish move on Bitcoin.
According to CME’s FED Watch tool, there is a 96.7% chance that the Fed will cut rates again at the October 29th FOMC meeting.
Some analysts say Bitcoin’s year-end price doesn’t matter
Other crypto industry executives still expect Bitcoin to soar to $250,000 by the end of this year.
Speaking on the Bankless podcast earlier this month, BitMine chairman Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said they remain confident that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year, a prediction they have stuck to for most of this year.
Related: Bitcoin charts reflect 1970s soybean bubble: Peter Brandt
However, some analysts are less concerned about what will happen to Bitcoin’s price at the end of this year. ”
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin should peak in the fourth quarter of this year doesn’t understand statistics and probability,” Bitcoin analyst Plan C said on September 5th.
magazine: Adam Back says Bitcoin price cycle is ’10 times bigger’ but will still decisively push it above $100,000