Important points:
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Deteriorating U.S.-China relations, U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent tariff increases, and traders’ avoidance of long-term leverage are all putting downward pressure on Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin could fall below $100,000, but analysts expect next week’s macroeconomic events to reverse the downtrend.
Data shows Bitcoin (BTC) market structure is looking to establish balance after last week’s sharp correction, but intensifying headwinds from President Trump’s renewed tariff war with China and a record-long US government shutdown are dampening the appetite of bullish investors to open new positions in the futures market.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, Coinbase Premium Index, and Coinbase’s spot cumulative volume delta (the net difference between buys and sells on the market) for professional and retail investors have been trending steadily upward since October 10, when Bitcoin sold to $107,000 on exchanges.
As shown in the graph below, the dynamics of volume delta, funding, and open interest in the Bitcoin market have evolved since the October 10 crash. While US retail and institutional investors are clearly accumulating BTC, Binance perpetual futures traders (red line) are actively selling.
Comparing spot and futures volumes on Binance (third panel), the spot delta is positive while the negative purps delta highlights an increase in short positions, supporting the view that spot buyer demand is driving strength from $107,000 to $108,000, while purps-driven selling is reinforcing the downtrend.
Here’s another view of this expression:
Considering the potential short-term Bitcoin price movements, the Liquidation Heatmap outlook (Binance, Bybit, BitMEX) estimates that momentum traders could go long on the liquidation cluster at $106,300 to $104,000, with short positions at risk of being closed at $115,000.
Prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, said Quinn Thompson, chief investment officer at Wrecker Capital.
“The 10/10 clearing cleared more leverage in dollars and % of OI than in the entire January-April period of ’25. Opportunities going forward are similar to the ’24 prior to the Trump victory.”
Similarly, macroeconomics-focused account Tom Capital cautioned traders to “just trade the price action” as a number of actionable events are expected next week.
Over the next week, you’ll likely need to navigate a story like this:
– US CPI release
– Possibility of US government reopening
– Fed rate cuts (future rate cuts)
– Nikkei Stock Average exceeds 50,000 yen
– gold topping
– TACO or no TACO (President Trump’s 100% voluntary tariffs on China, etc.)or…
— Tom Capital (@Tom__Capital) October 21, 2025
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.