Written by Francisco Rodriguez (all times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin is hovering around $111,000 as the U.S.-China trade war dampens investors’ risk appetite and safe-haven assets surge.
Gold rose 0.8% to a record above $4,230 an ounce, while Bitcoin’s movements were more muted. BTC has fallen 2% in the past 24 hours, reflecting a cautious but stable outlook from analysts.
The broader crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, endured an even bigger decline, posting a sharp 3.8% decline over the same period. The pullback comes as the market makes a fragile recovery from last week’s brutal $500 billion crash.
Still, for analysts, the market is not panicking, but rather calming. “The recent decline was not a panic sell, but a controlled deleveraging,” on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant wrote in its weekly market note, pointing to stable funding rates and relatively calm outflows.
Jasper de Meere, desk strategist at Wintermute, told CoinDesk in an emailed statement that increased options activity is shaping the short-term market structure for now.
Traders say they expect the market to calm down in the near future, as evidenced by “many short straddle/diagonal calls centered around 113,000 to 115,000 in the near term.” On top of that, we have added downside protection with a $112,000 put calendar.
Meanwhile, the price correlation between Bitcoin and gold reached 0.9, the highest in years. This indicator supports the idea that investors are increasingly treating cryptocurrencies as a hedge in times of geopolitical or economic stress.
Analysts at QCP Capital say that as institutional investors continue to accumulate funds and the inflow of funds through spot trading remains stable, “preparations for another rally may already be forming.”
Still, traders are looking for a catalyst. Expectations for rate cuts are providing support, with Polymarket traders currently pricing in a total rate cut of 75 basis points this year. Be alert!
what to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptography
- October 16th, 10am: Lido Poolside Community Call #2. Watch us live on YouTube, X, and LinkedIn.
- October 16: OpenxAI (OPENX), a permissionless AI protocol built on the Base blockchain, launches the public version of its mini-app builder.
- October 16: Taiwanese stablecoin infrastructure company OwlTing is listed on the Nasdaq Global Market under the ticker OWLS.
- October 16th: Retail investors in the UK will be allowed to start trading eligible crypto ETNs (physically backed BTC and ETH ETNs listed on the LSE).
- macro
- October 16, 8:30am: US September PPI. The headline year-on-year change is expected to be 2.6%, and the month-on-month change is estimated to be 0.3%. Core YoY change (2.8% last time), Monthly change (-0.1% last time).
- Oct. 16, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. September retail sales year-over-year (previously 5%), month-over-month forecast. 0.4%. ((Report delayed due to current federal government shutdown)
- revenue (estimated based on FactSet data)
token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- GnosisDAO is voting to form a Gnosis VPN committee with Seldon Inc to manage and expand the Gnosis VPN project built on top of the HOPR mixnet. The new organization, owned by DAO, will be responsible for operations, compliance and growth. Voting ends on October 16th.
- unlock
- October 16th: Releases 1.99% of circulating supply worth $39.24 million.
- Activate token
- Coinbase has added BNB to its listing roadmap.
conference
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
token talk
Written by Oliver Knight
- Altcoins had another big trade on Thursday as several assets faced double-digit declines.
- aster Over the past 24 hours, Lido (LDO) has all fallen between 12% and 13%, and CoinMarketCap’s ‘Altcoin Season’ index has fallen to 27/100, its lowest point in over three months.
- Cryptocurrency giants BTC and ETH remain above their respective support levels of $110,000 and $4,000, but sentiment has turned bearish after the market failed to recover from last weekend’s $500 billion loss.
- Here are the outliers in Thursday’s decline: rising from an intraday low of $0.312 to $0.322 as it began to show signs of strength and recovery.
- There are multiple factors behind the recent decline in stock prices. In particular, circulation from long-term Bitcoin holders is noticeable, and combined with a lack of demand, this creates an environment where there is strong selling pressure.
- Altcoins are often negatively impacted by Bitcoin’s downside, and liquidity levels remain low, especially following the leverage collapse over the weekend. This means that when a selloff occurs, the price quickly loses its support level until enough liquidity is found to meet seller demand.
Positioning of derivatives
- The BTC futures market remains stable, with open interest holdings at approximately $25 billion. It is also stable on a three-month annualized basis, trading in the 5-6% range. However, the notable divergence in funding rates highlights the mixed sentiment in the market. Funding rates for Binance and OKX are currently negative -2% to -3%, while other platforms are flat or slightly positive. This negative funding on major exchanges indicates that a large number of traders are holding short positions, suggesting some bearish conviction despite stable open interest and basis.
- The BTC options market is showing strong bullish signals. 24-hour put/call volume is currently roughly balanced, indicating steady demand from both sides. However, the most important indicator is the one-week 25 delta skew, which has jumped to 12.62%, suggesting that traders are willing to pay a significant premium for call options and are actively positioning for higher prices.
- According to Coinglass data, 24-hour liquidation volume was $415 million, with a 70-30 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($115 million), BTC ($80 million) and Others ($43 million) were the leaders in nominal liquidations. Binance’s liquidation heatmap shows $110,009 as the core liquidation level to monitor in case of a price drop.
market movements
- BTC fell 0.25% to $111,252.17 on Wednesday at 4:00 PM ET (24h: -0.99%).
- ETH rose 1.12% to $4,040.89 (24 hours: -2.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 0.25% to 3,705.27 (24 hours: -2.6%)
- Ether CESR comprehensive staking interest rate decreased by 4bps to 2.88%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0034% (-3.7624% p.a.) on Binance.
- DXY fell 0.22% to 98.58.
- Gold futures rose 0.99% to $4,243.00.
- Silver futures rose 1.10% to $51.94.
- The Nikkei 225 rose 1.27% to close at 48,277.74.
- Hang Seng closed unchanged at 25,888.51.
- FTSE rose 0.01% to 9,425.95.
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.37% to 5,625.86.
- The DJIA closed unchanged on Wednesday at 46,253.31.
- The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to close at 6,671.06.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.66% to end at 22,670.08.
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 0.93% higher at 30,637.12.
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index rose 1.13% to end at 2,858.51.
- US 10-year government bond interest rate fell 2.3bps to 4.022%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.28% to 6,733.75.
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.42% to 25,029.25.
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose 0.29% to 46,629.00.
bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.37% (-0.29%)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03643 (1.22%)
- Hashrate (7-day moving average): 1,080 EH/s
- Hash Price (Spot): $47.77
- Total fees: 2.96 BTC / $331,756
- CME futures open interest: 145,800 BTC
- BTC Gold Price: 26.5oz
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 7.48%
technical analysis
- After the October 10 liquidation cascade, BTC recovered to the $116,000 level, but faced rejection from the daily order block in the area. This level coincides with the monthly high close and the 50-EMA on the daily chart, reinforcing its importance as resistance.
- BTC is currently trading around $110,800, holding the upward support trend line established in September. To maintain the bullish structure, BTC needs to maintain the key support zone between $108,000 and $109,600. This area also coincides with the 200-EMA on the daily time frame.
- A breakdown below this level could open the door to a retest of the 50W EMA near $100,000.
crypto assets
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Wednesday’s closing price was $336.3 (-1.54%), +0.83% at $339.08.
- Circle Internet (CRCL): $134.48 (+0.01%), +1.07% to end at $135.95
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $41.92 (+1.9%), +0.79% to end at $42.25
- Bullish (BLSH): $58.65 (-1.11%), +0.38% to end at $58.87
- MARA Holdings (MARA): $22.84 (+2.7%), +1.36% to end at $23.15
- Riot Platform (RIOT): $22.13 (-0.27%), +1.08% to end at $22.37.
- Core Scientific (CORZ): $19.94 (+5.28%), +0.2% to close at $19.98
- CleanSpark (CLSK): $23.2 (+5.55%), 0.99% to end at $23.43
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): $65.9 (+3.31%), +0.58% to close at $66.29
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $27.47 (-1.15%)
crypto asset company
- Strategy (MSTR): $296.76 (-1.3%), +1.11% to end at $300.04
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Ended at $25.47 (-0.82%), -1.03% at $25.21
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): $15.15 (-3.13%), +5.02% to end at $15.91
- Upexi (UPXI): $6.02 (-3.68%), closing at -0.33% at $6
- Light Strategy (LITS): Closed at $2.13 (-2.74%), -0.94% at $2.11
ETF flow
Spot BTC ETF
- Net flow per day: -$104.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $62.4 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.36 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily net flow: $169.6 million
- Cumulative net flow: $14.9 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 6.81 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
- How far could BTC fall if the bulls fail to defend the $107,000-$110,000 support zone? (CoinDesk): Analysts warn that a decisive break below the $107,000-$110,000 support band could trigger a sharp decline towards $98,330 and even $82,000, as momentum signals indicate buyers are drying up.
- Kraken expands U.S. derivatives business with $100 million IG deal (Bloomberg): Kraken’s $100 million acquisition of IG Group’s smaller exchange gives the company a U.S. futures trading license and clears the way for it to launch a perpetual product in the country ahead of an IPO scheduled for next year.
- Despite bullish seasonal forecasts, Bitcoin faces intense selling pressure (CoinDesk): Long-term holders have sold over 300,000 BTC since June, with profit-taking accelerating since early October. Whales with over 10,000 BTC remain the main sellers, while smaller investors continue to accumulate.
- Paxos Fat-Fingers’ PayPal Stablecoin $300 Trillion Outstrips USD’s $2.4 Trillion Supply (CoinDesk): A technical error briefly created $300 trillion in PYUSD before Paxos burned the surplus, raising questions about how stablecoins are minted without matching reserves.
- FT Investigation: How Trump Companies Made $1 Billion from Cryptocurrency (Financial Times): Trump’s political power and regulatory reforms are reportedly accelerating a vast crypto empire spanning memecoins, stablecoins and DeFi platforms, attracting foreign capital and blurring the lines between nations and corporations.
- European Central Bank board leaders say inflation is solid but the path for interest rates is clear (CNBC): Revised forecasts show strong economic growth in Germany contrasting with stubborn services inflation across the euro zone, with policymakers remaining cautious as they debate when and how to adjust interest rates.