Important points:
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76% of retail traders are net long on Solana, which is historically a bullish signal.
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Treasury companies and financial institutions are accumulating SOLs of less than $200.
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Whale activity is increasing ahead of the Spot SOL ETF decision on October 16th.
Solana (SOL) prices below $200 may be undervalued, according to new data highlighting a rare bullish bias among retail traders.
On-chain analytics platform Hyblock said SOL is currently the only major crypto asset with the highest percentile in terms of true retail long percentage (TRA). The trading platform said on X Post:
“Approximately 76% of retail accounts currently hold net long positions in Solana, a threshold that is historically consistent with positive forward returns.”
Backtesting of Hyblock’s signals shows that whenever TRA exceeds 75%, the mean and median 7-day forward returns of SOL increase from about +2.25% to more than +5%, and the average drawdown decreases. The analysis also adds that the risk-reward ratio (RR) almost doubles in these situations, suggesting stronger upside follow-through and lower downside volatility.
Similarly, crypto analyst Dirkforst expressed optimism, pointing to a broader capitulation of altcoins as a potential accumulation step. The trader said only 10% of altcoins listed on Binance are above their 200-day moving average, indicating widespread fear and apathy. Historically, situations like this have preceded significant market recoveries.
“The best time to get exposure to altcoins is often when no one wants them anymore,” Dirkforst said, highlighting that in past cycles similar setups have been resolved with strong short-term recoveries.
For now, enterprise digital asset vaults appear to be taking advantage of SOL’s sub-$200 pricing. Solana financial company Solmate (Nasdaq: SLMT) announced it has purchased $50 million worth of SOL from the Solana Foundation at a 15% discount, and ARK Invest has acquired a new 11.5% ownership interest. Solmate previously raised $300 million to build a digital asset vault.
Meanwhile, treasury firm SOL Strategies (Nasdaq: STKE) acquired an additional 88,433 SOL, including 79,000 SOL locked from the Foundation, at an average price of $193.93 per coin, bringing its total holdings to 523,433 SOL. These moves highlight the concerted accumulation by institutional investors at current price levels.
Related: Bitcoin buyers bid $105,000 as crypto market meltdown nears end
Can SOL hold positions above $200?
While the long-term outlook for SOL remains positive, the recent sharp selloff and daily close below $190 breaks the bearish structure for the first time since February 2025, suggesting a possible change in momentum on higher time frames.
SOL briefly regained its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), but is now trading between the 50-day and 100-day EMA. This compression typically reflects indecision, where short-term momentum weakens while medium-term support is maintained, and often precedes a larger directional move.
Traders may continue to bid below $200, but a quick recovery may be limited. However, SOL has recently retested its long-term demand zone from $190 to $170 and may have absorbed previous buy orders during the October 10th flash crash.
If the bullish momentum is still not overwhelming in the coming days, a continuation could see SOL consolidate from $200 to $160.
Market analyst Perrin Ai said that despite the short-term bearish setup, whale order activity on SOL is starting to increase again, a trend that has historically preceded 40-70% gains. The analyst believes whales are taking positions ahead of the Oct. 16 spot SOL ETF decision, which could drive spot demand growth.
Combined with SOL’s high staking ratio and potential for inclusion in multiple publicly traded indexes, a favorable outcome for the ETF could tighten supply and re-establish SOL’s bullish trajectory above $200.
Related: Ether falls 8%, but traders say ETH price above $10,000 is a ‘load’
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.