Important points:
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If the $110,000 support fails, Bitcoin risks a correction towards $96,500 to $100,000.
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On-chain and technical patterns suggest a healthy mid-cycle reset rather than a complete trend reversal.
Bitcoin (BTC)’s rebound after a huge sell-off over the weekend showed signs of fading on Tuesday.
The stock fell 4.65% to around $110,000, reflecting a global selloff after China threatened further retaliation and imposed restrictions on five U.S. companies linked to South Korea’s largest shipyard.
Bitcoin’s $110,000 level has repeatedly flipped between resistance and support in 2025. The previous rejection caused a 19-30% decline, but the rebound from this zone since July has stimulated a 12-15% rally.
Let’s find out how far BTC could fall if the $110,000 support fails.
Bitcoin Expanding Wedge Suggests $100,000
Multiple analyzes suggest that if the $110,000 support level fails to hold, the chances of BTC price falling towards $100,000 increase.
This included a “huge bullish channel” highlighted by Bitbull on the chart, which showed BTC prices fluctuating in a widening wedge.
As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was in the midst of a correction phase after testing the upper trendline of the wedge as resistance. Historically, such corrections are exhausted around the lower trendline of the channel, which coincides with the $100,000 to $103,000 area.
This area also coincides with Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA represented by the red wave) and the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement line, increasing its technical importance as a potential target zone.
BTC indicator suggests a target of $96,500 (or worse)
According to Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, Bitcoin is currently trading around $119,000, below the +0.5 standard deviation band (+0.5σ band, orange).
MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands is an on-chain model that tracks how far the current market price deviates from Bitcoin’s “fair value” based on what most holders paid for the coin (realized price).
Historically, when BTC loses this +0.5σ band as support, it tends to fall back to the average band (yellow), which is currently located at around $96,500.
A similar “mean reversion” phase occurred during the correction period from December 2024 to April 2025, when Bitcoin fell from the +0.5σ level (approximately $66,980) to the mean band (approximately $53,900) and then rebounded sharply.
Related: 3 reasons why Bitcoin’s rise to $125,000 could be delayed
This fractal suggests that the current setup may simply be a cooling phase within a broader bull market, a reset to shake off overleverage and overheated valuations before the next up leg.
However, a decline below the mean reversion target risks triggering a bear market, with the next downside target being around $74,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.