Important points:
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Strong ETF inflows and accumulation across all BTC investor groups suggests the rally is just beginning.
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The Spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows of $2.2 billion in one week, the second-largest amount ever.
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The rare “cylinder” chart pattern suggests that $450,000 to $500,000 is involved in this cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded with high volatility on Thursday as uncertainty gripped the market ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in Kansas City.
But macro triggers aside, on-chain and technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s “supercycle” is just beginning, according to analysts.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows bring ‘permanent tailwinds’
Bitcoin showed unusually strong momentum after recovering from lows near $108,000, rising more than 16% to a new all-time high of more than $126,000 on Sunday.
Bitcoin’s recovery was fueled by high investor appetite for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded $2.2 billion in net inflows last week, according to data from Glassnode.
Related: 100 days left until Bitcoin goes “parabolic” or the bull market ends: Analysis
“Bitcoin’s new high near $126,000 is supported by a sharp resurgence in US spot ETF inflows,” the on-chain data provider said in its latest Week On-Chain report, adding:
“This new institutional investor participation has absorbed available spot supply and strengthened overall market liquidity.”
These inflows reflect the period from November 6, 2024 to December 16, 2024, when it attracted $5.7 billion, coinciding with Bitcoin’s 60% rise from $67,000 to $108,000.
Record inflows into spot ETFs indicate strong demand from institutional investors, but seasonality is also contributing to the current bull market.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, “often coinciding with new risk appetite and portfolio rebalancing,” Glassnod wrote, adding:
“Continued ETF inflows into October and November could provide a lasting tailwind, entrenching confidence and supporting prices through the end of the year.”
“More organic” Bitcoin accumulation
Bitcoin whales are becoming more risk-on, increasing their holdings even as prices rise. Glassnode shows that the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) is approaching 1 (see graph below), suggesting intensive accumulation by large investors.
This metric reflects the relative size of entities actively accumulating BTC on-chain.
This change mirrors a similar accumulation pattern observed in July and coincides with Bitcoin’s rise from sub-$100,000 levels in June to an all-time high of $124,500 on August 14th.
Additionally, we are also seeing a resurgence of purchases by small and medium-sized businesses holding 10-1,000 BTC, which have been accumulating consistently over the past few weeks.
Glassnode added:
“Coordination among mid-tier holders indicates a more organic accumulation phase, adding structural depth and resilience to the ongoing bull market.”
1 Bitcoin price chart targets $500,000
Bitcoin price trends form a relatively rare but reliable pattern known as the Jesse Livermore accumulation cylinder on a monthly time frame. According to analyst Marline the Trader, this signals an “unfolding” of the BTC supercycle.
Jesse Livermore’s Accumulation Cylinder is a technical analysis concept in which assets consolidate within a narrow price range to form a “cylinder” pattern that shows accumulation from strong hands before a breakout.
Merline The Trader pointed out that the BTC/USD pair is “currently entering Stage 8, Vertical Mania stage,” as shown in the chart below.
With the completion of the seventh phase of accumulation, Bitcoin is now likely to track levels 8 and 9, with target prices of approximately $450,000 and $500,000, respectively.
“A Bitcoin supercycle is unfolding,” the analyst said.
Fellow analyst Bitcoin Census highlighted that Bitcoin is repeating a similar development to the fourth quarter seen over the past two years, with the BTC/USD pair breaking out of its megaphone pattern and leading to a massive rally.
“Will vertical legs appear soon?”
As reported by Cointelegraph, multiple factors suggest that Bitcoin still has upside potential, with the cup-and-handle pattern predicting BTC price appreciation to reach $300,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.