Important points:
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After hitting the “tightness” of the Bollinger Bands, Bitcoin is set to breakout, but its direction remains unclear.
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History has shown that this scenario usually resolves within about three months.
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BTC price trends signal the beginning of a new “price discovery uptrend.”
Bitcoin (BTC) could turn “parabolic” or end its bull run within the next 100 days, according to a new BTC price volatility analysis.
In an X post on Wednesday, trader Tony “The Bull” Severino concluded that Bitcoin’s next move will depend on the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator.
BTC price faces new breakout dilemma
Bollinger Bands, the classic volatility gauge that acts as a leading indicator of price, recently hit a record “tightness” on the weekly time frame.
Analysts have been focused on follow-through price breakouts through the top or bottom of the outer bands.
Severino warned that such measures may not come soon and could take more than three months.
“So far, BTCUSD has not been able to forcefully break out of the upper band,” he said.
“Based on historical local price ranges, it could take more than 100 days to achieve a valid breakout (or breakout if BTC drops sharply).”
This time frame is based on past Bollinger Band breakouts during the course of the bull market that began in early 2023.
Severino said a clean breakout of either band on one candlestick each day would be an important signal, but added that a false breakout move could also occur.
“Be careful: Extending from a squeeze setup like this can result in a head fake, which we may have seen with this move,” he continued, referring to Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high above $126,000.
“You may also see another head fake down from here and eventually take off higher.”
Is Bitcoin “Price Discovery Uptrend” Next?
As reported by Cointelegraph, the previous bull run had market participants expecting the BTC/USD ceiling to blow out in October.
Related: BTC October price breakout unlikely: 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week
However, price trends have not yet shown the rapid upside characteristic of the final stages of a bull market.
Trader and analyst Recto Capital, who reported on the expiration of the all-time high last month, observed that Bitcoin’s price cycles are getting longer, not shorter.
“It is unlikely that Bitcoin has already peaked in the bull market, because that effectively means that this cycle was one of the shortest in history,” he correctly argued, even though $124,500 was still an all-time high at the time.
This week, Rekt Capital announced that a new “price discovery uptrend” could be starting.
Price Discovery Fix 2 has ended
In the end, the problem was indeed shallower, but it took about the same amount of time to resolve as previous cycles (2017, 2021).
Currently, Bitcoin is about to enter Price Discovery Uptrend 3.$BTC #cipher #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/n7xvcr8aTo
— Rect Capital (@rektcapital) October 6, 2025
Severino said the Bollinger Bands breakout will have a big impact on the bull market. He wrote:
“This could lead to a parabolic rise in Bitcoin or the end of a mature three-year bull market.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.