According to veteran trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin is poised for unprecedented price discovery unless it reaches an all-time high in the coming days.
“It’s reasonable to expect a bull market high now,” Brandt told Cointelegraph on Wednesday, citing Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical cycle pattern that has played out over the past three cycles.
“Although the cycle from low to halving to high was not always the same length, the distance after each halving was always equal to the distance before the halving,” Brandt said.
Sunday was an important day for the Bitcoin cycle.
Brandt explained that Bitcoin hit its current cycle low on November 9, 2022, 533 days before Bitcoin’s halving on April 20, 2024.
“Add 533 days to April 20, 2024 and bingo, this week,” he said. It was Sunday, just one day before Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of more than $126,100 on Monday.
However, Brandt emphasized that “there are always ‘exceptions'” that could have a significant impact on the development of Bitcoin’s price. “Trends that go against the cyclical or seasonal nature of the general market are usually the most dramatic,” he said.
Brandt pointed out that market cycles don’t always repeat in the same way, but Bitcoin has so far consistently followed market cycles.
“Sooner or later, cycles will change, but betting against a cycle with a perfect 3-3 record should not be done recklessly,” he said.
Brandt said he was 50-50 about the outcome. “I remain bullish and look for countercyclicality. In this case, my prediction would be well above $150,000, and perhaps as high as $185,000,” Brandt said.
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle debate continues
This comes as debate continues over whether four-year cycles for cryptocurrencies are still appropriate given the launch of institutional adoption, ETF products, and corporate digital asset vaults.
In July, cryptocurrency analyst Recto Capital similarly said that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market is likely to peak in October.
“We have very little time and little price expansion left,” Recto said on July 3.
Some argue that even if Bitcoin doesn’t exactly follow a four-year cycle, it will show some pattern.
Saad Ahmed, Gemini’s regional head for APAC, told Cointelegraph at Token 2049 that “ultimately it’s because people get excited and push themselves too hard,” and “then you see a crash, and then there’s a correction to some kind of equilibrium.”
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Several analysts expect Bitcoin to post a significant rally by the end of the year. Economist Timothy Peterson told Cointelegraph on Tuesday that there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will end the month above $140,000, based on simulations using data from the past 10 years.
Looking further ahead, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained market research director Joe Barnett both expect Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025.
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