Important points:
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The weekly ETF inflow exceeded $3.5 billion, and the foreign exchange balance reached its lowest level in five years highlights the new confidence among institutional investors in Bitcoin.
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The ongoing introduction of healthy futures and BTC suggests that traders expect Bitcoin to challenge $150,000 soon.
Bitcoin (BTC) adjusted 4.2% on Tuesday after hitting a record high of $126,219 the previous day, but was somewhat predicted after a weekly rise of 12.5%. As uncertainty in the global economic outlook grows, traders are concerned about a further decline, but Bitcoin derivatives and institutional capital flows still suggest a further upside.
Bitcoin’s monthly futures trade at an annual premium of 8% compared to the regular spot market, falling within the neutral 5% to 10% range. During periods of overconfidence, this spread often exceeds 20%, reflecting the growing demand for leveraged bull positions. In contrast, bear markets usually draw metrics below 5% or even into the negative territory, but this is clearly not the case now.
At first glance, the mistrust of derivative traders may seem bearish, but in reality, the risk of cascaded liquidation is reduced if Bitcoin prices drop further. Furthermore, the data strongly suggest that the rise after the $109,000 retest on September 26 was brought about by actual inflows rather than speculation. The longer Bitcoin is maintained beyond $120,000, the stronger the bulls’ confidence.
Inflows from institutional investors and corporate reserves strengthen Bitcoin’s market position
Institutional adoption continues to favor Bitcoin and strengthens its role as digital gold. Regardless of when it hits its all-time high, Bitcoin has already risen 31% since the start of the year in 2025, far surpassing the 14% rise in the S&P 500. Net inflows into listed Bitcoin products remain a reliable measure of institutional investors’ interest.
A weekly net inflow of $3.55 billion into Bitcoin listed products, including ETFs, boosted total assets under management to $195.2 billion, a clear indication that an increase in institutional adoption. For comparison, the total amount of listed products currently backed by silver, which has roughly the same market capitalization as Bitcoin, is around $40 billion.
Bitcoin investment companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet continue to buy BTC as a reserve asset and strengthen their status as an independent asset class. Brazilian company OranjeBTC began trading on the stock market on Tuesday after accumulating 3,675 BTC, worth more than $445 million at its current price.
Bitcoin foreign currency reserves fall to the lowest level in five years
Bitcoin deposits on exchanges have fallen to their lowest levels in more than five years, indicating a decline in supply that can be sold immediately. Glassnode estimates its total foreign exchange balance of 2.38 million BTC, down from 2.99 million BTC a month ago. Even if large buyers still have access to supply through storefront (OTC) desks, the decline in exchange balances indicates a continuous accumulation.
Decreasing resilience in Bitcoin deposits and derivatives markets drives bullish momentum
Open interest in Bitcoin futures across major exchanges is currently at $72 billion, down 2% from Monday, but remains at a strong level. Even when demand for short positions is included, a thick, liquid derivatives market is essential to attracting flows from global hedge funds and asset allocation providers.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may depend on reducing risks due to overvaluing the stock market. Traders on Tuesday threw Oracle stocks down after reports revealed that Oracle (ORCL) was facing a shrinking profit margin in its Nvidia-based rental business, which serves the cloud server business, particularly the artificial intelligence sector.
While there is still a possibility of a short-term solidification, the strength of the Bitcoin derivatives market and continued adoption by institutional investors support further upside, with bulls aiming for more than $150,000 by the end of the year.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended as legal or investment advice, nor should it be taken as such advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are the author’s sole proprietary and do not necessarily reflect or represent Cointelegraph’s views or opinions.