Important takeouts:
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The ETH ETF has opened access, but the flow remains cyclic.
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Sol’s plumbing is set. CME futures are live, with options scheduled for October 13th (pending approval).
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The general standards in SEC have made Spot-Commodity ETP lists faster than BTC and ETH.
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To surpass ETH, SOL will require sustained creation, tight hedges, actual on-chine use and ongoing developer momentum.
It is true that Ether (ETH) has already gotten a head start in the Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) race. SpotEtherETFS will begin trading on July 23, 2024, raising approximately $107 million in net inflow on the first day of day, paving the mainstream path for investors through brokers and retirement accounts.
However, the infrastructure in the Solana (Sol) market is catching up. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options scheduled for October 13.
In September 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission could adopt a “general listing standard” that streamlines the way exchanges list products (ETPs) traded on spot commodity exchanges, potentially expanding gates beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and ether.
Also outside the US, SOL is already trading at investment rappers regulated through 21 shares in Europe and 3IQ in Canada.
With that access already in place, the question is whether US Sol ETFs can fuel permanent demand that allows Solana to surpass ether in both price and base.
Before you tackle that, set up a context.
What ETFs have changed and what they didn’t do
Spot Ether ETFS began trading in the US on July 23, 2024. On the first day, they recorded trading volumes of around $1 billion and net inflows of around $107 million, opening mainstream channels for investors such as registered investment advisors (RIAs) and institutions. However, this still drags over the scale of Bitcoin’s ETF debut in January.
The flow has been periodic since then. Until mid-2025, ETH went through a period of pure creation separated by spills. Between late August and mid-September 2025, the report showed new strength, with multiple weekly influxes in ether products lifting the total assets of management (AUM). In short, ETFs improved access, but did not eliminate the market cycle.
Sometimes in 2025, ether was superior to many large crypto assets supported by stable ETF demand and visible facilities and accumulation of the Ministry of Finance. This pattern suggests that ETFs do not change the core network foundations, but may affect which assets lead during the capital turnover stage.
One design choice is still important. The US ETF was launched without staking, limiting the potential for income compared to directly retaining native ETH. The SEC is actively considering proposals to allow staking, but as of October 2025, multiple issuers’ decisions have been delayed. If staking is permitted, it could partially shift the trade-off between ETF holdings and direct ownership.
Did you know? US exchanges publish directive net asset value (INAV) about every 15 seconds, allowing traders to see where their ETF is priced.
Solana today: Usage, Growth, Risk
In the second quarter of 2025, Solana generated more than $271 million in network revenue, marking the third consecutive quarter, leading all Layer 1 (L1) and Layer 2 (L2) chains. In June, data showed that Solana combined monthly active addresses for all other major L1 and L2 to match a strong indicator of use strength.
In January 2025, Solana handled a $59.2 billion peer-to-peer (P2P) Stablecoin transfer. This is a sudden rebound from the low end of 2024. Solana’s USDC supply was around $93.5 billion, with the network’s total Stablecoin Supply exceeding $200 million in the first half of 2025.
Still, Ethereum shows that Solana’s profits were indicative, but still carried much of the value moved by the term coin in the year, which was about 60% in mid-2025.
Cost and speed remain important draws. Subcent fees, 400 ms block time and high throughput have made Solana a hub for distributed exchange (DEX) and permanent futures activity, and become the focus of Memecoin Boom in 2025. That volume supports fluidity, but also concentrates flow on speculative segments.
The two structural risks are worth looking at.
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Reliability: The 5-hour outage on February 6, 2024 required a coordinated restart and client patch (v1.17.20).
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Regulations: Past US SEC complaints have called Solana unregistered security. The outcomes in this sector remain policy dependent.
Did you know? CME SOL options have daily, monthly and quarterly expiration datesExpanding hedge menus for ETF market makers.
US Sol ETFs may change
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Access and flow: Approval opens SOL to mainstream brokerages and retirement channels used by registered investment advisors (RIAs). This reduces operational friction for allocators and broadens the buyer base beyond crypto-native venues.
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Market Making and Hedging: The listed derivatives provide certified participants (APS), and market makers provide tools to hedge creation and redemption, and to carry out basic or relative value transactions. These mechanics help keep ETF prices close to the NAV and support daily liquidity.
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Regulated runways: The SEC “general listing standard” extends paths beyond BTC and ETH if the sponsor meets the rules.
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Ex-US Demand Signal: Already, Canada’s 3IQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21 share Solana Staking ETP (6: ASOL) show that Solana’s regulated investment rappers can attract investors’ interest.
Did you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot be included in business for collective investments in transferable securities (UCITS) ETFs, so issuers use ETPs instead. Therefore, six “ETPs” will appear on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) ticker.
Can Sol actually surpass ETH?
Bull case (6-12 months after approval)
A timely US spotsol ETF with strong early net creations could surpass ether in full return.
Two key levers:
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Wideer access: RIAS and brokerages will gain exposure under the new generic list standard.
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Improved market dynamics: CME Solana futures and larger capacity as an APS hedge via listed options.
Basic case
Even if the Sol ETF is launched strongly, the flow could return to tracking the general risk appetite. Ether retains a structural institutional edge thanks to its long history, deeper allocator familiarity and established ecosystems. Crypto-weekly fund flow fluctuations reflect how relative performance is interrupted rather than leaning decisively towards SOL.
Bear case
Slip or eligibility questions under the US SEC framework may reduce expectations. Alternatively, fluidity can be softer, and the AP may run smaller books despite derivative works being available, limiting creation. In that scenario, Solana reduces the performance of the ether. This already benefits from a more mature distribution.
It is also worth noting that some regulators have expressed concern about a decline in case-by-case scrutiny based on general listing standards, adding uncertainty in assets policy beyond Bitcoin and ether.
What should you pay attention to?
If the US Spot Sol ETF is approved, the actual story could be what happens next.
The important signals to watch are simple. Do creation and redness indicate enduring demand? Does CME have interests and optional activities deepen your liquidity? Do on-chain metrics like active users, fare revenue, Stablecoin Settlement, developer growth and more continue beyond speculative bursts? As those needles move together, the odds of ETH above the SOL rise sharply.
The Solana ETF removes major access bottlenecks and arrives with a stronger market infrastructure than its past cycles. But ether has already proven that it can attract billions through ETFs while still fixing institutional conversations.
ETH remains a benchmark, and its flow shows its persistence, albeit periodically. Whether Solana really outperforms depends on whether ETF influx translates into sustained on-chine adoption and on hype.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.