Important takeouts:
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Bitcoin raised 14% in a week, focusing on $124,000 amid the US government closure.
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On-chain data shows US-led demand, showing a surge of $1.6 billion in purchases and a Coinbase premium gap of $92.
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Analysts have resistance close to $130,000, and price discoveries can be made next week.
Bitcoin (BTC) held a fierce rally last week, rising 14% last Friday to trade between $124,000 and a few dollars from a low range of nearly $108,600. This surge could tweak Bitcoin to territory with fresh prices above $125,500. This mark highlights the widespread strength of the rally, with its total crypto market capitalization exceeding $4.21 trillion.
One of the surprising catalysts behind this price rise is the US government shutdown and the market seems to be ignoring it. Investor uncertainty is growing as federal agencies release staff and economic data face delays.
Under these conditions, Bitcoin is making a direct profit, rising 8% since the shutdown, with traders responding to a lack of a clear policy direction. The government has also complicated the Federal Reserve decision as inflation and employment data could be postponed and increase speculative flow to crypto.
In a comment on the Cointelegraph, according to a Bitfinex analyst,
Bitcoin’s move towards a new all-time high looks really organic. I think Trump’s announcement that it will potentially consider stimulus checks for all citizens funded by tariffs could contribute to further rise in Bitcoin prices.
Referring to US macroeconomic terms, analysts said, “The macroeconomic terms remain supportive and increase appetite for risky assets as the mitigation of inflation and the Federal Reserve adopts a more incredible attitude. […] If the influx is consistent and the macro data does not bring upward surprises, Q4’s newer path to history’s highest appears well supported. ”
On-Chain BTC Purchase Pressure Mount
Onchain data confirmed that the surge is driven by strong demand. Analyst Maartunn has purchased volume spikes that buy takers that cost over $1.6 billion in an hour on all exchanges.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase premium gap, which measures the difference in price between Coinbase and Binance, rose to $91.86. Analyst Burak Kesmeci explained that US investors have paid nearly $92 per bitcoin at Coinbase, indicating strong US-led demand.
However, this is the highest premium since mid-August, and the level of bullish momentum that has been historically cooled in 2025.
Related: Bitcoin $88 billion open interest Sparks “Flash” worry to narrow it down as a record
Price discovery forecast for next week
With Bitcoin pushing near record highs, analysts were hoping to find a price next week. Crypto Trader Jelle pointed out,
“We have $120,000 supported today. We’ll keep it for the weekend. And I hope that price discoveries will resume as soon as next week.”
Trader Rect Capital described this phase as “phase 3 price discovery” in the breakout phase, the current cycle when new highs are established.
Analyst Skew pointed out that demand is robust, while heavy sell orders are clustered around $130,000, making it the next important resistance. Analysts also highlighted the strong US influx through Coinbase and the massive “risk-on” positioning into Binance, highlighting the importance of future daily closures in order to see if BTC can maintain momentum.
Related: Stablecoins defeats its $300 million market capitalization, with 47% growth since the start of the year
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.