Important takeouts:
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Sol’s CME public interest recorded a record $2.16 billion, indicating strong institutional activity.
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Retailers remain cautious and continue to calm leverage after the $307 million liquidation.
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Solana ETPS surpassed the $500 million AUM, strengthening the trend in institutional accumulation.
Solana (Sol) Futures has entered a crucial stage. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reached its all-time high of $2.16 billion, rebounding from the local bottom to 23% at $195 on Friday. This timing was noticeable as the volume of engines surged at CME after SOL established a bottom.
CME’s annual base was 16.37%, well below the 35% in July, reflecting optimism, but not overheated sentiment. In contrast, centralized exchange retail-driven OIs are relatively flat during gatherings and funding rates approach neutral.
This difference suggests that while institutions are actively positioned, retailers are likely to remain cautious and warned of the $307 million liquidation on September 22. Traders appear to be reluctant to chase momentum, and the market is not prone to overly leveraged volatility.
From a structural perspective, this creates a balanced but bullish setup. While agencies are tiered to position after convictions, retail hesitations can help prevent bubble buildup. A surge in CME volume at the local bottom point of the SOL means that data is occurring stronger hand accumulation rather than inferential blow-off positioning.
At the same time, the influx of Solana Exchange-Traded products (ETPs) has strengthened the institutional appetite. Solana ETP’s total net flow exceeded $400 million this week, exceeding $500 million in managed assets led by Solana Staking ETF (SSK) of Rexshares this week, and Bitise Solana Staking ETP (BSOL) exceeding $100 million. This milestone highlighted both the rapid growth of BSOL and SSK since its launch and the accelerated adoption of regulated vehicles for Solana exposure.
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Short-term Sol Price Scenario: Rally or Dip?
Sol’s short-term pass depends on whether retail trust will return. On the downside, retracement from $218 to $210 does not undermine the wider bullish structure as it retests the fair value gap (FVG) on a four-hour chart and retests the 200th exponential moving average (EMA).
The liquidation heatmap also outlined that dense liquidity clusters ranging from $2.2 million to $2 million sit between $220 and $200. This modification to the zone serves as a healthy higher, lower lower, allowing it to maintain a bullish market structure while washing away late participants.
Conversely, a decisive push from $245 to $250 signal strength, potentially bringing Sol closer to $290, a record high. Given the institutional flow, this scenario gains weight if ETF speculation remains a dominant narrative.
In both cases, the lack of aggressive retail leverage works in the SoL’s favor, reducing the downside risk of cascade liquidation. The more institutions continue to lock in CME OI growth, the more likely the compensation will be shallower than trend destruction.
For now, Sol Futures painted a picture of a market that transitioned from fear to careful accumulation, with the institution leading the charges.
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This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.