Francisco Rodrigues (always ET unless otherwise indicated)
Bitcoin It moved higher amid the US government closures, rising about 3% in the last 24 hours to $116,400. The broader crypto market, measured by the Coindesk 20 index (CD20), rose 3.5%.
The stock market, except the US, also moved higher despite traders continuing to be cautious about shutdowns. The European Stoxx 50 rose 0.3% in today’s session, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.7%. However, futures on the S&P 500 have fallen by 0.55%, while Nasdaq has fallen by 0.64%.
The US government closure could lead to delays in economic data, which is exacerbated by pushing tariffs on various items. This appears to be watching investors move away from the country and into valuable alternatives.
This uncertainty has led to gold prices rising 3.75% over the past week to around $3,890 per ounce. Spot Crypto ETFS pulled out a net inflow of over $550 million on September 30, with Spot Bitcoin ETF representing the lion’s share of that number.
Flights to alternative assets occur against a favorable macroeconomic background.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to continue cutting interest rates this month, with traders in polymerquets increasing the likelihood of a 25 bps reduction by 85%. That number is close to 95% on CME’s FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates can create risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, making them even more appetizing for investors.
The institutional involvement has also deepened amidst changes in institutional policy. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has surpassed DeRibit and is now the leading venue for Bitcoin options trading with open interest of nearly $38 billion.
“We have seen the convergence of both institutional support and maturity across the Bitcoin ecosystem. Bitcoin is embedded in the foundations of global finance, and institutional interest is the highest ever.”
“Unlike the past few years, this can see a more targeted influx, which could be a breakout moment when accelerating Bitcoin defi, as investors want to do more with their Bitcoin holdings.
Certainly, Bitcoin exposure, coupled with yields, appears to be a new trend. Just this morning, Swiss Digital Bank Sygnym launches a new BTC Alpha Fund, aiming to generate Bitcoin yields without reducing exposure to cryptocurrency price movements.
While traditional markets could reduce volatility due to future data gaps from government closures, Crypto Market is looking forward to a wave of spot ETF decisions in the near future.
The SEC is planning to make decisions this month for a total of 16 Spot Crypto ETF applications. Keep alerts!
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see Coindesk’s weekly predecessor’s notes.
- Crypto
- Macros
- October 1st at 8:15am: US September ADP Employment Change EST. 50k.
- October 1st 9am: S&P Global Brazil September Manufactured PMI (47.7 4).
- October 1st, 9:30am: S&P Global Canada September Manufactured PMI (48.3 4).
- October 1st, 9:45am: S&P Global US Septing Manufacturing PMI (Final). EST (Eastern standard. 52.
- October 1st: 10am: PMI EST manufactured by US ISM September. 49.
- October 1st: 10am: US Senate Treasury Committee entitled “Investigating Digital Asset Taxation.”
- October 1st 11am: S&P Global Mexico September Manufactured PMI (front (50.2am).
- Revenue (Estimation based on fact set data)
Token Event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see Coindesk’s weekly predecessor’s notes.
- Governance votes and phone calls
- Gnosisdao is voting for a resubmission proposal to establish a $40,000 pilot fund. This allows communities to directly fund small ecosystem projects using the conviction voting pool. Voting will end on October 1st.
- Unlock
- October 1st: To unlock 1.23% of distribution supply worth $137.27 million.
- October 1: Eigenlayer (Eigen) to unlock 13.77% of distribution supply worth $64.07 million.
- Token launch
- October 1: SWAM (SWM) is listed in Binance Alpha, Kucoin, Bitmart, etc.
meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see Coindesk’s weekly predecessor’s notes.
Token talk
Oliver Night
- Privacy Token It led the pack on Wednesday, rising to its highest point since May 2022, following its departure from the Bitcoin-dollar trading pair.
- After touching $97.25, ZEC retreated back to around $92.00. The day saw daily trading volume rise by 36%, up 41% to $300 million.
- Surge comes along with boosts across the wider altcoin market. curve (CRV) and Everything has increased by more than 8%.
- Many catalysts have caused code recovery. In particular, the US government closure lowered the dollar and brought gold to a fresh record high at $3,887.
- While Altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin so far on Wednesday, it is worth noting that the average crypto-relative strength index (RSI) is approaching the territory where it has been over-acquired.
- One market is Aster, a native token of BNB chain-based permanent exchanges of its name. The hype began to fade with its high-lipid rivals as Aster fell 6.8% on Wednesday, exacerbating the 25% decline in the past week.
Positioning of derivatives
- The BTC futures market continues to show a strengthened bullish bias. Open interest on the overall futures remains at around $316.9 billion, reflecting sustained trader engagement, with Binance still leading the pack at $131.9 billion. At the same time, the three-month annual standard holds between 6% and 7%, indicating that yields from the underlying transaction remain strong. This consistent indicator, across both open interest and foundation, suggests that traders are not only increasing exposure, but also doing so with confidence, reinforcing the positive sentiment observed in the market.
- The BTC Options market continues to show differences between its key metrics, presenting a complex picture of market emotions. The 25 delta distortion for the short-term options remains low, suggesting that traders are still willing to pay premiums to hedge negative side risk, but the 24-hour put/call volume will be a surge in bullish speculation. The most recent data shows that calls account for 63.54% of the total volume. This conflicting data shows a highly polarized environment in which some traders are hedging against potential price drops, but more numbers are actively betting on short-term meetings.
- Funding rates have not only remained positive in major exchanges such as Binance and OKX, but have also been featured entirely, including historically volatile high lipids. In particular, Delibit looks at a significant premium, with annual funding rate rising to 17%. This indicates strong and sustainable demand for long leveraged positions, as traders are willing to pay high premiums to consistently place bullish bets. A wide range of positive funding across all major platforms indicates collective market convictions in the BTC’s continued upward trend.
- Coinglass data shows a $644 million liquidation in a 24-hour liquidation, split between 38-62 long and shorts. BTC ($166 million), ETH ($164 million) and others ($69 million) were leaders in terms of anticipated liquidation. The Binance Squiration Heatmap shows $116,650 as the core liquidation level to monitor in the event of price increases.
Market movements
- BTC rose 1.54% from 4pm on Tuesday, $116,430.81 (24 hours: +3.02%)
- ETH is up 2.8% at $4,313.90 (24 hours: +3.25%)
- Coindesk 20 is up 2.61% at 4,140.33 (24 hours: +4%)
- Ether CESR Composite staking rate is 2.87%, down 6 bps
- BTC’s funding rate is 0.0066% (7.1974% per year) for Binance
- DXY has not changed at 97.74
- Gold futures are up 1.18% at $3,919.00
- Silver futures are up 1.73% at $47.44
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.85% at 44,550.85
- Hang Seng rose 0.87% to 26,855.56
- FTSE is up 0.66% at 9,412.09
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.31% at 5,546.86
- DJIA rose 0.18% on Tuesday at 46,397.89
- S&P 500 closed 0.41% at 6,688.46
- NASDAQ Composite rose 0.30% to 22,660.01
- S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.17% at 30,022.81
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.21% at 2,951.50
- The 10-year financial ratio in the US is up 0.2 bps at 4.152%
- E-Mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.54% at 6,702.50
- E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.62% at 24,748.00
- The e-mini dow Jones Industrialify Average Index is down 0.47% at 46,471.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.88% (-0.28%)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03690 (1.51%)
- Hash rate (7-day moving average): 1,058 EH/s
- Hashpris (spot): $51.68
- Total Fee: 3.15 BTC/$359,057
- CME Futures Open Interest: 134,400 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 30.1 oz
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 8.49%
Technical Analysis
- The pump was one of the lowest lowest assets earlier this week, bouncing off the Golden Pocket for $0.0048 after a drawdown from the record high. After being accepted than the annual opening, which coincides with the 20D EMA, the pump is trading back to its initial high at $0.0069.
- As momentum continues, the pump targets the daily order block at around $0.0074. The Bulls will want to continue trading pumps beyond the openings that open each year in the event of a drawdown.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (Coin): Tuesday at $337.49 (+1.05%), +1.83% at $343.68 at +1.83%
- Circle Internet (CRCL): $132.58 (-0.81%), +1.54% closed at $134.62
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $33.81 (-1.4%), +2.37% at $34.61
- Bullish (BLSH): $63.61 (+2.1%), closed at +0.46%, $63.90
- Mara Holdings (Mara): $18.26 (-2.14%), +2.14% at $18.65
- Riot Platforms (Riot): $19.03 (-3.79%), +1.37% at $19.29 +1.37%
- Core Scientific (CORZ): $17.94 (+3.52%), +0.33% closes at $18
- CleanSpark (CLSK): $14.5 (-2.49%), closed at +2.41% at $14.85
- Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): $44.24 (+0.07%), +1.6% at $44.95 at +1.6%
- Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed at $27.78 (-4.04%)
Cryptocurrency company
- Strategy (MSTR): $322.21 (-1.29%), +2.66% at $330.78 at +2.66%
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): $30 (+2.6%), $30.61 at +2.03%
- Sharplink Gaming (SBET): $17.01 (-1.45%), +2.59% at $17.45
- upexi(upxi): $5.77 (+2.67%), closed at $6.17 at +6.93%
- Lite Strategy (Lits): $2.42 (-4.72%), closed at +6.61% at $2.58
ETF Flow
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily Net Flow: $429.9 million
- Cumulative net flow: $577.2 billion
- Total BTC holdings: 132 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily Net Flow: $127.5 million
- Cumulative net flow: $138.1 billion
- Total ETH holdings: 658 million
Source: Farside Investors