Important takeouts:
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Bitcoin aims to close September with a profit of 4.50%. This is a set up ahead of the historically powerful Q4 rally.
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On-chain data shows strengthening spot demand led by US investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) is scheduled to close September at around $113,100, up 4.50% on the last trading day of the month, up 4.50%. Historically, Green September has been a strong market setup, often leading up to strong rally in the final quarter of this year.
According to the data, when Bitcoin closed its Green Monthly Candles in September 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024, Q4 produced an average return of over 53%. It also broke, with an average decline of 21.8% in October, 10.8% in November and 3.2% in December, with year-end performance highlighting October as a key ignition point.
In these examples, Bitcoin posted Q4 returns ranging from 45% to 66%, often leading BTC to new highs. If a similar pattern is played, BTC could focus on the $170,000 region before the end of the year based on current levels.
Seasonal data shows October usually acts as a launchpad, expanding profits through November and certain years until December. This effect is profitable in the post-Harving years as capital inflows and market positioning drive Bitcoin to fresh price discoveries.
Cointelegraph recently reported insights from Bitcoin Network economist Timothy Peterson. Timothy Peterson said that about 60% of Bitcoin’s annual performance tends to occur after October 3rd, with momentum often growing until June. Analysts also suggest that there is a 50% chance that BTC will reach $200,000 by mid-2026, supported by seasonally driven bull repeats. But Peterson added
“We’re almost certain that we’ll be positive this year based on history and developing market conditions. But in most cases, big profits don’t start as far as the third week.”
Past performances do not guarantee future results, but the trend of BTC accelerating higher after September’s green adds weight to bullish projections over the coming months. With Bitcoin trading $110,000 firmly, the final quarter could prove once again decisive for assets.
Related: Was the price reduction for Bitcoin at 108K? Three reasons why the worst happened
BTC Spot Activity Indicators Are Bull
The Onchain metric also reflects Bitcoin’s enhanced bullish outlook. Spottaker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) on a 90-day basis reversed to positive on Monday, marking its first green light since July 14th. This indicator tracks the cumulative differences between market purchases and market sales volumes.
At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index highlights a consistent accumulation by US investors. Data showed enriched clusters of green activity in the third quarter, indicating aggressive spot demand that has not been seen since early July. Coinbase Premium and Spot Taker CVD Shift reinforce the view that purchasing momentum is being built into the market.
Related: Bitcoin Gears for ‘Uptober’ after $114K Rally Revives Bulls
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.