James Van Stratin (all times unless otherwise indicated)
If Monday’s trading performance in Crypto and related stocks is an indication of what October and the fourth quarter will bring, it could be an active time for an industry that is lagging behind both US stocks and metals.
It increased by 5% from fear-driven session on Friday to a more neutral stance at $114,000 on Monday, showing how quickly emotions measured by the code’s fear and greedy index change.
Still, the biggest cryptocurrencies have given up on some of those profits and have recently traded around $112,800. You will probably need money to give up some attention before the next move gets high.
But that could be a challenge. Gold continues to be outperform, offering nearly 50% returns since the start of the year, rising to a high of over $3,870 in the first half of the year. At the same time, the Dollar Index (DXY) was unable to generate momentum, falling below 98. This is positive for the risk asset.
Meanwhile, the imminent US government closure threatens to affect crypto policy decisions more than any other sector.
Stocks related to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing continue to gain strength. Robinhood (Hood), the trading platform added to the S&P 500 with the latest rebalancing, saw its share price rise 12% on Monday as the quarter ended.
September has been a rather calm month for cryptocurrencies, with the Coindesk 20 index not increasing by just 0.54% over the period. They are on track to fall behind and lose more than 5% that month. Bitcoin is currently up 4.5%.
In October, it was called Uptover due to its historic effect on BTC. Keep alerts!
What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see Coindesk’s weekly predecessor’s notes.
- Crypto
- September 30: FTX will launch $1.6 billion and begin payments for third creditors under bankruptcy plans through Bitgo, Kraken and Payoneer. Creditors must complete the KYC and tax papers to qualify.
- September 30: StarkNet (STRK) will begin BTC staking on the mainnet, allowing you to staking BTC tokens wrapped with a consensus weight of 25%. The period without staking has been reduced to seven days. Rewards begin.
- Macros
- September 30th, 10am: US August Jolts Report. Opening EST. 7.1m, QUITS (prev. 3.208m).
- September 30th, 10am: US September CB Consumers Trust. EST (Eastern standard. 96.
- September 30th: The deadline for passing the funding government project for the US Congress’s annual federal budget bill.
- Revenue (Estimation based on fact set data)
Token Event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see Coindesk’s weekly predecessor’s notes.
- Governance votes and phone calls
- Gnosisdao is voting for a resubmission proposal to establish a $40,000 pilot fund. This allows communities to directly fund small ecosystem projects using the conviction voting pool. Voting will end on October 1st.
- Unlock
- September 30th: To unlock 1.74% of the circulation supply, unlock the supply supply worth $20.46 million.
- Token launch
- September 30th: The airdrop claim period will soon end (soon).
- September 30: Zkverify (VFY) is listed in Binance. kucoin, gate.io, etc.
meeting
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s meetings, see Coindesk’s Week-Anead Note.
Token talk
Oliver Night
- The fight to exchange derivatives between aster and high lipids is heated.
- Daily trading volumes for BNB chain-based Aster have skyrocketed to $64 billion, with Hyperliquid’s $7.6 billion war farming, Defillama data shows.
- According to Boltliquidity Core contributor Max Arch, the shift is due to Aster providing 100 to 300 times leverage. Hyperliquid’s market is primarily limited to 40 times.
- “Regardless of the quality of the underlying platform, traders track leverage, but see how higher leverage caps affect Aster’s long-term platform,” writes Arch in X.
- Arches note that about 6% of Aster’s trading volume can be attributed to washing transactions.
- The exchange’s native tokens, asters and hype have been slowing down over the past week. The former slides from $2.39 on September 25th to $1.80, with the hype dropping from $58.92 to $44.32 from the September 18th high.
- According to CoinmarketCap data, bearish token performance compared to trading activity could be attributed to the broader Altcoin sale, which led to a $200 billion removal from its market capitalization last week.
Positioning of derivatives
- The market shows signs of a potential shift towards bullish bias as derivative metrics with open interest and foundations show pickup.
- Overall open interest on BTC futures has increased from $29 billion a month to about $31 billion. The increase shows renewed interest from traders, with Binance still leading at $12.7 billion.
- The three-month annual base has also recovered, rising from about 6% to 7%, making the base trading more profitable.
- The BTC options market still presents a complex and somewhat contradictory image.
- While 25 deltas continue to distort short-term options, suggesting traders pay a premium to puts and show their desire for negative side protection, the 24-hour put call volume tells a different story.
- In a clear reversal from recent trends, call dominates the volume, accounting for 65% of contracts traded. This rapid increase shows that a considerable number of traders are actively positioned for short-term meetings despite the clever sentiment being reflected in ske.
- This divergence highlights a highly polarized market where a combination of hedging strategies and speculative betting creates a state of mixed emotion.
- Funding rates at major venues such as Binance and OKX were positive, rising to around 7% and 10% respectively. This shows the growing appetite for leveraged long positions where long traders are currently paying for shorts, a classic sign of positive market sentiment.
- High lipid funding rates remain volatile, but the main exchange trend suggests that traders will once again be confident and willing to take on bullish exposure
- Coinglass data shows a $316 million liquidation in a 24-hour liquidation, with 44-56 splits between the long and shorts. ETH ($73 million), BTC ($70 million), and others ($29 million) were leaders in terms of anticipated liquidation. Binance Squiration Heatmap shows $115,000 as the core liquidation level to monitor in the event of price increases.
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.3% from 4pm on Monday at $112,840.60 (24 hours: +0.71%)
- ETH is down 2.13% at $4,138.84 (24 hours: +0.71%)
- Coindesk 20 is down 2.34% at 3,971.18 (24 hours: -0.16%)
- Ether CESR Composite staking rate increases by 2.93% at 12 bps
- BTC’s funding rate is 0.0056% (annual rate of 6.1276%) for Binance
- DXY has not changed at 97.82
- Gold futures increased 0.76% to $3,884.40
- Silver Futures has not changed for $47.01
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.25% at 44,932.63
- Hang Seng rose 0.87% to 26,855.56
- FTSE has not changed at 9,299.84
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.13% at 5,506.85
- DJIA rose 0.15% on Monday at 46,316.07
- S&P 500 closed 0.26% at 6,661.21
- NASDAQ Composite rose 0.48% at 22,591.15
- S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.71% at 29,971.91
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.84% at 2,945.34
- The 10-year financial ratio in the US is down 1.6 bps at 4.125%
- E-Mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% at 6,706.50
- E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures remain unchanged at 24,814.75
- E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is down 0.13% at 46,550.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.88% (0.12%)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03673 (-0.33%)
- Hash rate (7-day moving average): 1,041 EH/s
- Hashpris (spot): $50.55
- Total fee: 3.32 BTC/$376,516
- CME Futures Open Interest: 133,005 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 29.5 oz
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 8.32%
Technical Analysis
- After testing the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the weekly chart, Bitcoin has rebounded to the $114,000 level, currently surpassing its major daily EMA.
- For the Bulls, the key objective is to push through the daily order block between $116,000 and $118,000. This confirms a break in the market structure and shows a reversal of potential trends.
- On the downside, if it falls below Monday’s high at $114,870, Bitcoin reveals its possibility to retest Monday’s low. Additionally, this level coincides with the EMA100 on the daily chart, making it an important confluence area to watch.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (Coin): $333.99 (+6.85%) on Monday, with -1.77% closing at $328.09 before market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): $133.66 (+5.25%), -1.22% closes at $132.03
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $34.29 (+10.97%), closed at -1.90% at $33.64
- Bullish (BLSH): $62.3 (-0.46%), closed at -1.56% at $61.33
- Mara Holdings (Mara): $18.66 (+15.69%), closed at -2.63% at $18.17
- Riot Platforms (Riot): $19.78 (+11.81%), closed at -2.38% at $19.31
- Core Scientific (CORZ): $17.33 (+2.85%), closed at -0.52% at $17.24
- CleanSpark (CLSK): $14.87 (+14.74%), closed at -2.02% at $14.57
- Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): $44.21 (+8.86%), -1.02% at $43.76 at -1.02%
- Exodus Movement (Exod): $28.95 (+1.54%), +1.38% closed at $29.35
Cryptocurrency company
- Strategy (MSTR): $326.42 (+5.62%), closed at -2.34% at $318.77
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): $29.24 (+3.29%), closed at -0.14% at $29.20
- Sharplink Gaming (SBET): $17.26 (+7.88%), closed at -2.61% at $16.81
- upexi(upxi): $5.62 (+7.77%), -1.25% is $5.55
- Lite Strategy (Lits): $2.54 (-0.78%), 1.57% closes at $2.50
ETF Flow
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily Net Flow: $518 million
- Cumulative net flow: $57.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings: 1.31 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily Net Flow: $546.9 million
- Cumulative net flow: $136.9 billion
- Total ETH holdings: 6.46 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you’re asleep
- According to SEC Hester Peirce, the SEC is about to engage with tokenized asset issuers (Coindesk): The SEC committee member said to raise complex questions about how digital and traditional securities coexist, prompting issuers to seek guidance as the market expands towards billions of dollars.
- Vance says after meeting Democrats (Reuters) we are “heading for a shutdown”: the standoff over health funding has halted negotiations and raised prospects for Farrow, court closures and delays in services if government funds expire tomorrow.
- Visa Tests Tests Preunded Stablecoins for Cross-Border Payments (Bloomberg): Pilots using Circle’s USDC and EURC aim to help banks and remittance companies avoid pre-funded accounts, speed up cross-border transfers, and avoid improving capital efficiency in Visa Direct.
- The Circle: Initiative for Integrating Deutsche Börse, Circle and Stablecoins into European Market Infrastructure (Coindesk) begins via 360T 3DX and Crypto Finance from Circle’s EURC and USDC trading.
- Societe Generale’s Crypto Arm will deploy Euro and Dollar stubcoins to Uniswap, Morpho (Coindesk): SG-Forge’s EuroCV and USDCV.
- Investors are worried that stock market rally will be on the borrowed hour (The Wall Street Journal): ramp-stretched speculation, record valuations, tariff-driven inflation risks, and rocky history of October fuel the warning that Wall Street rally could be vulnerable to a sharp reversal.