James Van Stratin (all times unless otherwise indicated)
an increase of 2.5% over the past 24 hours, creating a CME futures gap of between $110,000 and $111,335. This is the difference in prices when the CME market closed for the week of Friday and reopened on Sunday.
A similar setup is displayed. This earned 3.4%, leaving a futures gap of around $4,000.
The thing about the gaps in CME futures is that they tend to be met. With the two biggest cryptocurrencies currently trading higher than they are, both – at some point, it means that they are likely to recapture and retest those lower levels.
Monthly lows for Bitcoin often tend to occur within the first 10 days. This means that this dip could arrive within the next two weeks. That’s despite October, often referred to as “up-to-bar,” historically the second-best performing month with an average return of 22%.
More broadly, the Coindesk 20 Index has scored 3.2% in the last 24 hours, with all members turning green.
Outside of the crypto, precious metals remained solid, with gold approaching $3,815 on Monday at 1.5% and silver approaching $47 with the next breakout level at $50.
The macro market focuses on the highly influential US employment report on Friday, with a measure of new jobs excluding non-farm pay, farm jobs and certain categories expected to be 39,000, along with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The ISM Services PMI is projected at 52, indicating the continued expansion of the world’s largest economy.
For Bitcoin to break out of its current trading range of $110,000 to $120,000, fluctuations and emotions need to be returned. The fourth quarter, which begins Wednesday, can provide catalysts. Keep alerts!
What to see
- Crypto
- September 29th, 8pm: Pancakeswap (Cake) will discontinue support for the polygon’s Zkevm liquidity pool and permanent V1 order book. Users must withdraw funds by the deadline.
- Macros
- September 29th, 7:30am: Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on Frankfurt’s “payments.”
- September 29th, 10:30am: September Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Prev. -1.8)
- September 29th, 1pm: The US agency SEC and CFTC are holding a roundtable discussion on regulatory harmony efforts. Watch live.
- Revenue (Estimation based on fact set data)
Token Event
- Governance votes and phone calls
- Lido Dao is voting to design and implement the Lido V3 upgrade. This introduces Staking Vault (STVAULT), which in particular allows users to select a specific staking operator. Voting will end on September 29th.
- Unlock
- Token launch
- September 29: ANOMA (XAN) listed in Kucoin.
- September 29th: Ronin (Ron) Ministry of Finance’s buyback begins.
- September 29: Falcon Finance (FF) listed in Binance, Bingx, Kucoin, Gate.io, Bitget, and more.
meeting
Token talk
Oliver Night
- XPL, Plasma’s native token, is beginning to cool off following its red-hot trading debut. Tethered back tokens have been changing hands at $1.29, down 12% over the past 24 hours, as daily trading volumes fell 9% to $2.3 billion.
- However, on-chain activity talks about something else, with deposits increasing 13.7% to $5.5 billion over the same time. Much of that capital flows into yield generation products, such as plasma saving vaults.
- According to Defilama data, the combination of attractive yields and rapid influx has prompted Plasma to climb blockchain rankings quickly, already overtaking Coinbase support base in terms of locked totals.
- Although XPL’s trading activity is chilled, the influx suggests strong investors’ appetites in the relative lull of the broader crypto market as assets such as BTC and ETH returned to their respective levels of support at the tail end last week.
- It remains to be seen how well plasma and its protocols will work during the bullish market phase, but blockchain focused on Stablecoin has already acquired fruit when the market is under pressure.
Positioning of derivatives
- Overall open interest on BTC futures has fallen from the recent $320 billion to around $29 billion, indicating traders are reducing exposure.
- At the same time, the profitability of trade is reduced as the annual base for three months remains compressed at around 6%.
- Essentially, the market shows a clear shift from bullish bias as traders unleash their strengths and more and more shorts enter the market.
- In the options, the volatility term structure implied BTC shows an upward slop curve, with an increase in 25 delta distortion short-term options (one week, one month), suggesting that some traders are paying a more call premium than put.
- This is directly inconsistent with the 24-hour put call volume. This indicates that it is dominant at 58.43% of contracts traded.
- The divergence suggests a highly polarized market that has been betting on short-term gatherings, while also actively hedging against declines, leading to states of indecision and mixed-emotion.
- BTC’s funding rate has recently become negative, suggesting a growing bearish sentiment. After stabilizing most of the week, the annual funding rate for high lipids fell sharply to minus-6%. This shows strong beliefs from traders who are shortening BTC on that platform.
- Meanwhile, funding rates at major venues such as Binance and OKX remain close to neutral. The overall trend, particularly the sudden drop in high lipids, suggests that traders are actively robbing and positioning risks from the table due to lower BTC prices.
- Coinglass data shows a $350 million liquidation in a 24-hour liquidation, with 24-76 long and shorts split. ETH ($130 million), BTC ($52 million) and Sol ($37 million) were leaders in terms of conceptual liquidation. Binance’s liquidation heatmap shows $113,000 as the core liquidation level to monitor in the event of price increases.
Market movements
- BTC rose 2.54% from 4pm on Friday, $112,164.29 (24 hours: +2.49%)
- ETH increased by 3.1% to $4,136.88 (24 hours: +3.38%)
- Coindesk 20 is up 2.76% at 3,985.34 (24 hours: +3.2%)
- Ether CESR Composite staking rate is down 9 bps at 2.81%
- BTC’s funding rate is -0.0012% (-1.2855% annually) for Binance
- DXY is down 0.19% at 97.96
- Gold futures increased 0.76% to $3,838.10
- Silver futures increased by 0.73% to $46.99
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.69% at 45,043.75
- Hang Seng rose 1.89% to 26,622.88
- FTSE is up 0.58% at 9,338.77
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.14% at 5,507.35
- DJIA rose 0.65% on Friday at 46,247.29
- S&P 500 closed 0.59% at 6,643.70
- NASDAQ Composite rose 0.44% at 22,484.07
- S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.1% at 29,761.28
- S&P 40 Latin America rose 0.43% at 2,920.80
- The 10-year financial ratio in the US is down 4.143%, down 4.4 bps
- E-Mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.51% at 6,730.75
- E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.64% at 24,885.75
- The e-mini dow Jones Industry Average Index is up 0.4% at 46,741.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.61% (0.11%)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03687 (-0.16%)
- Hash rate (7-day moving average): 1,051 EH/s
- Hashpris (spot): $49.78
- Total fee: 2.19 BTC/$241,364
- CME Futures Open Interest: 134,900 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 29.6 oz
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 8.35%
Technical Analysis
- The ether rebounded from the exponential moving average of 100 days and regained ground above the important psychological level of $4,000. This recovery shows resilience, but the short-term trend remains leaning towards the negative, with 50-day EMA (now close to $4,210) serving as immediate resistance.
- To build bullish momentum, traders will keep an eye on ETH to continue to respect weekly support and to see if they can establish acceptance beyond their recent weekly swings.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (Coin): Closed on Friday at $312.59 (+1.92%), with +2.26% at $319.66 in advance market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): $126.99 (+1.87%), +1.98% closed at $129.50
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $30.90 (-3.78%), +3.27% closed at $31.91
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $62.59 (+1.23%), +1.9% is $63.78
- Mara Holdings (Mara): $16.13 (+0.37%), $16.56 at +2.67%
- Riot Platforms (Riot): $17.69 (+5.68%), +3% closed at $18.22
- Core Scientific (CORZ): $16.85 (+0.06%), +2.08% closed at $17.20
- CleanSpark (CLSK): $12.96 (-5.26%), closed at +3.16% at $13.37
- Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $40.61 (-3.68%)
- Exodus Movement (Exod): $28.51 (-1.35%), closed at +2.81% at $29.31
Cryptocurrency company
- Strategy (MSTR): $309.06 (+2.78%), +2.3% at $316.17 +2.3%
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): $28.31 (-6.29%), +2.3% at $28.96
- Sharplink Gaming (SBET): $16 (-1.9%), +1.94% at $16.3
- upexi(upxi): $5.22 (-1.23%), closed at $5.30 at +1.63%
- Lite Strategy (Lits): $2.56 (+0.79%), $2.67 at +4.3%
ETF Flow
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily Net Flow: -418.3 million
- Cumulative net flow: $567.8 billion
- Total BTC holdings: 132 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily Net Flow: -$248.4 million
- Cumulative net flow: $13.14 billion
- Total ETH holdings: 652 million
Source: Farside Investors