Key takeout
Why is Bitcoin under intense sales pressure now?
Long-term holders are actively profiting, but demand for ETFs is declining sharply.
What helps Bitcoin rebound from the current downward trend?
Once short-term holders absorb the sale, BTC can recover towards a cost base of $1.11 million.
Bitcoin [BTC] He has experienced severe downward pressure, and its three-week low was $108,652.
In fact, at the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $109,027, marking a 2.6% drop on the daily chart and a 6.44% drop on the weekly chart.
Amid this sustained downward trend, Bitcoin holders, particularly long-term holders, have turned to aggressive profit acquisitions.
Bitcoin Lths benefited 3.4m BTC
Bitcoin has temporarily gathered at $117K after a recent FOMC meeting led to a 25 bps cut. However, the market quickly shifted to the revision phase, resulting from profits from long-term holders and reduced demand from ETFs.
Source: CheckonChain
As a result, LTHS sales risk rose to 0.0017. This reflects an increase in LTHS sales impulses, according to CheckonChain data.
According to GlassNode, in this cycle, long-term Bitcoin holders achieve 3.4 BTC of profit, surpassing the other cycles, indicating the maturity of the cohort and the strength of capital turnover.
Source: GlassNode
Since the FOMC meeting, LTH has grasped 63.8k BTC and is currently sitting at a height of three weeks.
This surge in realised profits between cohorts indicates that this cycle proves to be extremely profitable for LTHS. Therefore, when the price movement to the shortcomings became stubborn, LTHS chose to lock their profits.
Lth Dominance Fades
As a result of increased profits, long-term holders are no longer dormant players in the market. The decrease in the RHODL ratio proves this fact.
Source: CheckonChain
Therefore, their share of value is now overtaken by new market participants. Historically, this is typical of a medium bloom market cycle, where you gradually make a profit and pass the coin to STH.
ETF demand collapses
According to GlassNode, the downward trend of Bitcoin has been held strong not only for LTHS but also due to lack of institutional demand.
Source: GlassNode
ETF Netflows (7D-SMA) plummeted from 2.6K BTC per day to near zero. As of reporting time, the daily net inflow was -2.24K BTC, indicating that outflows from ETFs exceeded inflow.
The surge in sales pressure, combined with waning institutional demand, has created a vulnerable market environment and contributed to Bitcoin’s recent weakness.
What’s next for BTC?
According to an analysis by Ambcrypto, Bitcoin is facing intense downward pressure as LTHS turns to aggressive profits while demand for ETFs is waning.
These market conditions have been the setting for potentially many losses on the BTC price chart. Therefore, if the market conditions continue, BTC will decrease to $107,314.
However, if STH absorbs the market shock as Capital spins out of LTH, demand will provide a key foundation for BTC and help rebound to around 111K towards the cost base of STH.