TL; PhD
In our latest trading space:
- The Fed was cut by 25 bps on Wednesday, September 17th, 2025. This is a widely anticipated movement. Powell’s tone reads as “not a sprint,” and the dot plot means more room for reduction this year, but not a flood.
- The classic “hawkish cut” speaks of, after the decision, a long-end yield popped out. See 10 years as a macro risk gauge.
- US stocks fell into fresh records. It stalled after the code bounced back. This is not the decoupling we wanted – not yet.
- In the case of ciphers, momentum is mixed. The majors did not push the major midrange levels. The width of the Alts is attempted (compression + bullish EMA cross), but requires follow-through.
EDGE ON EDGE: FRB rate reduction and cryptographic reactions https://t.co/1iwkyifhqp
– kraken (@krakenfx) September 19, 2025
Treasury Macro for 2010 says (and why it’s important)
Decision: Target range from 4.00% to 4.25% from –25 bps. Futures were pretty much priced that. Upward surprises (50 bps or ultra doubish guidance) did not arrive. Powell emphasized attention and data dependence. Currently, the market is leaning towards two cuts of 25 bps in 2025, but participants are split. This is Chop’s classic recipe.
Tell: 10 years of Treasury, steep curve. The 10-year increase in yields indicates that the market is likely to remain concerned about long-term inflation. Keep that 10-year estimate in the layout.
Meanwhile, high-value stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq, ripping small caps) emphasize that liquidity will remain alive even if bonds are pushed back.
What you saw on the crypto chart
Bitcoin (Trend Follow Lens)
- Midrange Rejection: Levels flagged in previous streams were neatly rejected. The momentum after form does not last.
- Next place to see: 4H EMAS + Confluence of previous swinglow clusters. The first “reaction zone” of constructive retest. Failure there opens a deeper sweep into lower range areas.
Ethereum (Momentum check)
ETH attempted to push around the FOMC window but could not push over the weekly open. The market structure is not broken, it is merely indecisive. They hope that they will be retrieved quickly on top of the cluster or that retests are low when the buyer intervenes and tagged.
Market width: total 3 & “Other”
- Total of 3 (Crypto Marken Cap ex-BTC & ETH) is boxed between previous ATH bands. Above = ALT risk-on. Below = Risk-off. You cannot trade directly, but that’s a check of the atmosphere. It checks if the ALT strength is there.
- “others” shows a similar picture. The breakout faded when I first came across a large supply shelves. It’s not a breakdown, but it’s a battlefield.
translation: Risk rewards support patience until you get a confirmation (rest and hold) or deeper retest (flush to demand).
We walked setup
We focus on Structure + EMA with simple and counterfeitable plans. These ideas don’t require leverage. Using spots will survive volatility.
- Doge (Strength → Hesitant): The strong trend signal from the bullish Emma crosses, but the price is fighting to outweigh the previous swing high. Flip/hold that shelf for continuance or wait for the cleaner to soak in the next demand box.
- “Just Here” pattern (new list): Slow bleed for a few weeks → Base → emas/fibs → Reclaim Emas → Ride on logical targets. I used it and introduced it pump Historically, it was mapped later Unique As today’s analogue: prolonged bleeding, bass, emma appears, constructive recovery. In case of risk: Keep a stop under the impulse that started the recall and do not force leverage.
- Compression breakout (Alt bucket): A handful of Alts show monthly open volatility contractions along with fresh bullish EMA crosses. There is a first step. Sustainability is the issue. If the weekend is resolved higher, breakouts and ongoing trading will be active. Otherwise, the retest view drops downwards, often providing better asymmetry.
Let’s explain about Dippelino.
– Level $ BTC $ eth $ sol
– What now?
– Our fresh entry (this is AM) $ ena $ eigen pic.twitter.com/qrpre2qyqk– Dentoshi (@dentoshi) September 22, 2025
Playbook for the next 1-2 weeks
- I respect 10 years. If you rise for a long time, you will get the “Hawkish Cut” condition after cutting. Once the decade cools down, the risk appeal will improve. If you want to climb, please select it.
- Major first. BTC, which regains midrange with momentum, is a wider beta green light. When BTC drifts into the EMA/Demand cluster and reacts well, Alt has room to run.
- Check the width. Total3/”Other” wants to destroy and hold the above supply band. Otherwise, try not to chase, and look for fade → retest → replay structure.
- Only two entry archetypes:
- Breakout strength: Fresh highs and highs support in low time frames – but only if the market looks good overall.
- Retest-Logic: When Emma rises down, it will be washed away by pre-mapped demand (your “plunge protection”).
- Risk Management: Equal to a known percentage of portfolio risk (under the impulse or key EMA structure), and invalidation (under the impulse or key EMA structure) sets the size of the position. There is no hero leverage in weeks with lots of macros.
Why did this feel like a “hawkish cut”?
- Expected size (25 bps) → No upside surprises.
- Powell’s tone: “Hurry and don’t make it easy” → Market price the cut path at a re-price.
- Dotplot: The bias will cut again this year, but the committee is split.
- Bonds: Long rates. A steep curve.
- These are classic “hawkish cut” crumbs and are mapped neatly for hesitation in the code we saw.
If you don’t follow our Friday trading space live stream (via) @krakenfx) After that, there is no alpha.
From last Friday’s discussion @dentoshi And I was watching ETH price action. Fast forward to today and you’ll see how it unfolded 🎯 pic.twitter.com/3G3IFQEFWJ
– Matthew Howells Barbie ξmhb.eth (@matthewbarby) September 22, 2025
Want more Dentoshi’s process?
If you’re new to the Trading Space Series, get a full replay of this trading space here or check out the recent summary on the Kraken blog to see more profound breakdowns in Dentoshi’s momentum and retest framework.
The final words: We’re at that knife edge. A quick show of strength across the major unlocks the next leg or gets a deeper markdown giving you a better entry. Until then, bring the market to your level. Name the chart pattern, map invalidation, and wait for the shot.