Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) told viewers late September 25 that Bitcoin’s pullback tracks the familiar seasonal, structural scripts, and that the next major market impulse depends on a well-defined scope of support. “We’ll hold between $100,000 and $98,000,” he said, calling the zone the fulcrum for the next leg of the bull cycle. “That’s it. It’s very easy.”
Kevin opened his stream amid a rush of bearish emotions as BTC’s price fell to $108,651, insisting that the drawdown should not surprise disciplined traders. He framed the current movement in the context of several months of attention dating back to early August. He began to emphasize the weekly bearish divergence across Bitcoin, Ethereum and the total altcoin market (total of 2).
“After a higher movement, everyone thinks that these symmetrical triangle patterns are continuity patterns,” he said. He pointed to a progression of smaller impulse highs since late 2023, repeating that despite sharp gatherings on selected altcoins, Major failed to clear “major resistance levels.”
Bitcoin is at the top until it proves not
The anchor in Kevin’s case is the confluence of a higher time frame. On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, he outlined the rise in price increases in relation to drop in momentum. It is not a “simple indicator of strength and momentum,” but rather a context that “it has been decreasing for a very long time.”
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Total 2 added that when weekly RSI and MACD roll over, they registered a “weekly triple top” under about $1.71-1.74 trillion (“total resistance level”). Momentum inventory has been reset precisely in his reading, in his historically thin late liquidity. “Q3 is by no means a good quarter for crypto,” Kevin said. “August and September are terrible months. They’re always like that.”
Against this background, he argued that USDT’s domination remains the most reliable inter-market compass. “USDT’s advantage is the biggest chart ever. There’s no better chart,” he said. I walked through the macro downward triangle and repeatedly rallied onto trendlines that mapped lows and highs of a two-year crypto cycle with support for flat bottoms of nearly 3.9-3.7%.
He noted that he carved a w- or reverse-head shoulder style base on USDT.D while Bitcoin was being distributed near the local top. Each rejection in the downtrend is consistent with a cryptography inflection. “Literally, you don’t need a chart for everything in cipher,” he said. “All you need is Bitcoin and USDT control and you’d play this cycle perfectly perfectly.”
From a tactical standpoint, Kevin flagged a “heatmap” shelf for nearly $106.8k on a three-month BTC liquidity “heatmap” shelf, and the 21-week EMA (Bulmarket Support Band) flagged a low Bollinger band every week at $101K and 109.2K as a natural magnet.
He emphasized that he doesn’t want to see “bitcoin loses 106.8k” if the cycle remains unharmed, but the core to that area to “swipe through liquidity” would match the previous reset. He framing $98K as a line that should not be crucially broken. “There’s a lot of support in that range,” he said. “If Bitcoin couldn’t bounce back somewhere, I would be quite shocked.”
All eyes on seasonality in the fourth quarter
Kevin ties the structural signals to an explicit macro checklist, claiming that the top and bottom of the permanent cycle coincides with the basic catalyst, not just the chart. He cited the inflationary spike in 2021 and the start of the Fed’s hiking cycle as a driver for 55-60% drawdowns of that cycle, and the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launched as a blow-off top catalyst, and FTX collapsed as the final surrender of a weekly bullish extinction.
“There’s always a macro-related reason that correlates with the chart,” he said. In contrast, he has not seen such an end-of-cycle macro trigger today. The inflation gauge is “very choppy” but is included. The Fed is widely expected to ease at the end of the year as the workforce softens. Seasonality supports Q4.
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He highlighted a short-term calendar of core PCE, CPI and labor data in early October. “In mid-October… we start to know where this market really goes,” he said. “If you reach mid-October and Bitcoin holds major support and get good macroeconomic data, you get another rate reduction… Probability supports what Bitcoin does [go higher]- And you’re in the fourth quarter. ”
He added that the volatility positioning will insist on a sharp directional movement once the reset is complete. With the width of the weekly Bollinger band, Kevin said BTC printed three record low measurements for this cycle (Q3) three times, with each episode surged to a fresh high starting with a downside break of 18-29%.
“There’s a big move in Bitcoin right away. It’s not happening yet,” he said. In his view, testing a low weekly band near $101K is “possible”, but not required. What’s important is that the wider $107k-$98,000 corridor serves as a stepping stone.
Kevin was equally explicit about the nullification and upside trigger. He labeled $125K as “major top for now” and said market needs are above that level each week to see the trend continue.
With advantage, he highlighted 59.0% and 60.28% as a recent resistance that could fuel the BTC-led stage when regenerated. Otherwise, he hopes that leadership will return to altcoins when printing lower highs in Bitcoin Base and USDT dominance. “Stop looking at altcoins,” he advised, stressing patience, risk management and profits on resistance until these inter-market signals were reversed.
His conclusion combines restraint and opportunism. “Try to 98K from $107K,” he repeated. “Let’s enter October. Get through the first few weeks of macroeconomic data. Bitcoin will inevitably find something low on the back of that data and ultimately it will be high.” However, he warned that if the macro is benign and “bitcoin is still getting worse,” traders should be ready to reevaluate the papers of the cycle. Until then, Kevin’s message remains attractive and unattractive. Respect for seasonal chops, track chops between markets, and talk to higher time frame levels. “The right thing is the best putt on the back you can get,” he said. “I’m not just saying that I’m getting a lot of clicks.”
At the time of pressing, BTC traded for $109,607.
Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com