Crypto Markets Recover Slightly as Signs Point to Late Cycle Phase

Bitcoin is just under $113,000, while Ethereum is over $4,100.

The crypto market was still volatile on Tuesday, September 23rd, with a total market capitalization of around $4 trillion, just 0.4% higher than yesterday.

Data from Defiant’s pricing page shows Bitcoin (BTC) is just under $113,000 at $112,991, flat on the day, and now down about 2%. Ethereum (ETH) is also flat at around $4,186, but ETH’s weekly loss is Starker 5.8%.

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BTC 24-hour price chart. Source: Coingecko

Other large crypto assets are mixed today. XRP rose slightly to $2.88, while BNB acquired 2.5% solids, bouncing off yesterday’s loss and regaining $1,000. Meanwhile, Solana (Sol) slipped another 1% to $219, while Tron (TRX) fell 2%, indicating that confidence has not really returned, even if yesterday’s big sell-off slowed down.

Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, told Defiant that the sale on Monday reflects investors’ current skepticism in terms of portfolio expansion “until the market direction and the impact of the macro environment become even more clear.”

Young told the rebels that the market had shown “signs of cycle fatigue” and destroyed BTC’s technical views.

“The long-term technical picture is now at a critical inflection point as signs of cycle fatigue and market cracking are beginning to emerge. The risk below $112,000 will bring the market back to its $107,000 support range.

Young added that most tokens are “closing the unsold condition across multiple market metrics, which could launch a recovery rally that could encourage BTC to retest the $117,000 mark.”

The chief analyst at MEXC Research also noted that the coming days will be important to understand the market direction, saying, “The final leveraged flash of this cycle will either return to the market or the onset of deeper macro-driven retracements, which could lead to a continuation of historical unperformance due to digital assets in September.

Liquidation, ETFs, and macros

After a serious collapse yesterday, liquidation was eased today. Over the past 24 hours, roughly $351 million of leveraged bets have been wiped out by Coinglass data, much less than Monday’s $1.7 billion. Like yesterday, Ethereum led leveraged driximation, but was far less than $55 million followed by BTC of $44 million.

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24-hour cryptocurrency liquidation. Source: Coinglass

On the Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) side, this week’s money flow has been negative. The Spot Bitcoin ETF saw more than $360 million net spills on Monday, while the Spot Ethereum ETF has withdrawn nearly $76 million, according to data from SOSOValue.

According to CNBC, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Tuesday that the global economy has risen by 3.2% from 2.9% this June, and that growth is expected to fall to 2.9% in 2026 after an increase of 3.3% in 2024.

As the OECD explained, global growth was “more resilient than expected in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging market economies.”

Bitcoin Cycle

GlassNode analysts explained in a Weekly Digest, published over the weekend that the market is “increasingly sensitive and reflexive in its structure” as derivatives continue to accelerate.

They added that Bitcoin’s current price action “reflects previous patterns” from a cycle perspective. For both the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles, the highest ever high “is only two to three months where we are currently standing when measured from the cycle,” the report states.

“Additionally, long-term holders have achieved profit levels comparable to previous euphoric stages, strengthening the market’s impression later in the cycle,” the analyst added.

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BTC prices after low cycle. Source: GlassNode

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