Important takeouts:
-
Ether won 75% against Bitcoin in the third quarter, but performed slightly lower in September.
-
Retail investors’ participation has remained weak, creating differences from institutional trends.
Ether (ETH) is up 75% compared to Bitcoin in the third quarter, and despite the recent slowdown in price action, traders believe Altcoin could reach $5,000 in 2025.
GlassNode data shows that futures traders’ interest is focused on ether. Its public interest advantage is currently 43.3%, the fourth highest on record, with Bitcoin holding 56.7%. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s permanent futures volume dominance reached an all-time high of 67%, highlighting the biggest rotation of trading activity against the ether in history.
Similarly, cryptographic analyst CrazzyBlockk highlighted the “critical state” of potential ether breakouts. Analysts said retrieving the $4,580 level tied to the runoff cost base of accumulation and exchange was crucial.
With over 1.28 million ETH worth more than $5.3 billion moved to long-term accumulation addresses on Thursday, successful recovery rates have allowed the market to turn the sentiment upside down and pave the way for a $5,000 breakout.
ETH has found support of around $4,100, corresponding to the average cost base of highly active addresses.
Related: Ethereum’s last chance? ETH price pattern breaks down as $4K needs to hold
Institutional demand reduces the supply of ether, but is retailing declining?
Recent demand for ether is driven primarily by institutions, with distribution supply declining. The US Spot ETH ETF has grown its total net worth from $10.32 billion in June to $27.48 billion in September, exceeding $17 billion in July and August.
Additional institutional demand from the strategic Ethereum reserves led by Bitmine and Sharplink rose from 5,445,458 ETH on July 1 to 12,029,054 ETH by September 23, a 121% increase, currently valued at around $46 billion.
Despite this surge in institutional accumulation, retail participation appears to be waning. Binance’s net taker volume has remained negative for the past month, with this trend peaking in late September, indicating sustained selling pressure despite wider Altcoin enthusiasm.
Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator, which tracks the cumulative difference between market purchases and sales over 90 days, has been on the dominant sales by Taker since the end of July. This means that retailers sell ETH more consistently than purchases, reinforcing differences between institutional accumulation and retail behavior.
As retail flows become positive and spot taker CVD moves into the shopping dominance phase, ETH can see retail-led gatherings, complementing the ongoing institutional accumulation and potentially accelerating the momentum of the wider market.
Related: Ethereum Bulls Tout Supercycle, but Wall Street is skeptical
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.