arbaloch99.tk@gmail.com
A structural reset is currently underway across Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain metrics, with several key indicators returning to historical equilibrium levels, indicating a broad flash of speculative excess.
A recent GlassNode report states: The adjustment is clear Metrics such as MVRV ratio, SOPR, and sell-side risk ratio show that investor euphoria, balanced profits, and integration are close to cost-based levels.
This set reset suggests that recent drawdowns may move from volatile corrections to the stabilization stage, setting the basis for the next sustained market movement.
Bitcoin’s upward momentum faced resistance when it attempted to reestablish its foothold beyond the $93,000-$95,000 zone. This level coincides with the lower bounds of the multimonth integration range observed between November 2024 and February 2025.
Price action has recently split from a downward trend, setting a higher price, indicating the possibility of a structural reversal.
The current consolidation is consistent with key technology levels including the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and short-term holder (STH) cost bases, respectively, and is calculated at $91,300 and $93,200, respectively.
Bitcoin is traded above both thresholds. This is a condition that marked the administration’s transition in past cycles. However, GlassNode warns that it is essential to keep above these levels. Because retreats under them reintroduce unrealized losses across the short-term investor base.
Required reset
The structural reset across several on-chain indicators reflects a speculative excess of flashing and a shift towards more neutral positioning.
MVRV ratio comparing market value with realised value has returned to its long-term average of 1.74, similar to the drawdown behavior recorded during the sale in August 2024.
This reset means that the average investor has returned to break-even, reducing the incentive for large-scale surrender or euphoric gains.
In parallel, the percentage of supply held in profit remains at 88%, with most losses being limited to coins between $95,000 and $100,000. This metric also bounces back to historic averages and shows a stabilisation of investor positioning.
The realized profit/loss ratio and spending patterns analyzed through SOPR suggest that neutral sentiment has replaced modest profit realization.
The seller’s risk ratio checks the low volatility conditions. This metric remains at a suppressed level, suggesting that most on-chain spending is either cost-based or near.
BTC changes hands at equilibrium price levels are a sign of indecision and a harbinger of volatility compression in the coming days.
Markets will consolidate
Investor behavior further supports the integration narrative. Long-term Holders (LTHS) have increased their holdings by 254,000 BTC since their recent lows, at a price of over $95,000.
This cohort continues to show minimal spending activity, showing strong convictions and reduced sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations.
The report estimates that if unrealized profits reach 350%, the average LTH will face an increase in holding incentives in the face of an increase in holding incentives. This corresponds to a spot price of nearly $99,900.
This gives you the $95,000 to $100,000 range, the resistance zone that Bitcoin is currently trading in. Investors with entry points near these levels may consider exiting the rupture.
Over $100,000 means fewer coins exist on a cost basis, meaning lighter resistance and potentially smoother conditions for price discovery.
For now, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a comprehensive structural reset, with on-chain data showing a decline in speculative bubbles and improved market equilibrium.
