Despite falling stock prices and a slowdown in Bitcoin purchases, Strategy Inc., the world’s largest Bitcoin holder, may have a 70% chance of being added to the S&P 500 index by the end of the year, according to crypto market intelligence firm 10X Research.
Strategies is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 30, which is expected to include an estimated $3.8 billion gain from fair value Bitcoin (BTC) accounting.
A profitable quarter would give the stock a 60-70% chance of being included in the S&P 500 on Dec. 19, according to a Wednesday report from 10X Research.
“Surrender always feels like the end, until it quietly marks the beginning,” the report said. “The Oct. 30 earnings release could reignite speculation about a Dec. 5 S&P 500 inclusion decision. The probability of this scenario is approximately 70%.”
10X said the earnings report represents a “clear catalyst” for the strategy, although investor sentiment towards the stock remains “washed out.”
Bitcoin slowdown and valuation distortion
This prediction was made despite widespread concerns over the sustainability of digital asset treasury (DAT), as several companies have seen their market net asset value (mNAV) fall below key benchmarks this year.
Related: ‘No Blackrock, no political parties for Bitcoin and altcoin ETF investing: K33 Research
The mNAV ratio compares a company’s enterprise value to the value of its crypto asset holdings. When mNAV exceeds 1, companies can raise funds by issuing new shares to accumulate digital assets. If the value is less than 1, it will be very difficult to expand your capital and holdings.
Some DATs see mNAV falling below this critical level, effectively cutting off their ability to raise funds for further purchases. These companies include Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI), and DeFi Development Corp (DFDV).
Related: Solana ETF could raise $6 billion in first year as SOL joins the ‘big leagues’
Crypto market liquidity will recover at this point in the cycle
Strategy has been slowing its Bitcoin purchases over the past month. The company acquired only 778 Bitcoins in October, one of its lowest monthly acquisitions and a 78% decrease from the 3,526 Bitcoins it purchased in September.
Despite a slowdown in Bitcoin acquisitions and a $19 billion market correction, this is “the exact point” in the crypto market cycle where “a return to liquidity and a large-scale move may materialize,” according to 10X Research.
“With the NAV premium that cost investors $18 billion in losses largely eliminated and volatility starting to rise again, the risk-reward relationship is no longer about preparing for the downside, but about preparing for what comes next.”
Despite the stock’s positive outlook, Strategy received a “B-” credit rating from S&P Global Ratings, placing it in the speculative, non-investment grade realm often associated with “junk bonds.”
This is the first time a company focused on Bitcoin treasury has been assessed by S&P Global, establishing a new potential benchmark for traditional financial participants evaluating crypto companies.
magazine: Bitcoin sees ‘another big push’ to $150,000, ETH pressure increases