Keynote
- Bitcoin ETF saw a $258 million leak in September.
- 25, BlackRock’s IBIT record inflow only.
- BTC fell to its four-week low of $108,700 and currently has support of nearly $109,000.
- Chain data shows extreme profits and short-term holders approaching liquidation stress.
We spot bitcoin
BTC
$109 148
24-hour volatility:
2.4%
Market Cap:
$2.18 t
Vol. 24H:
$72.37 b
The ETF faced another day of a major spill on September 25th, recording a net withdrawal of $258 million, data shows.
BlackRock’s IBIT was standing as the sole fund to register the influx, but its rival saw fierce red. Ethereum
ETH
$3 892
24-hour volatility:
3.6%
Market Cap:
$469.45 b
Vol. 24H:
$57.77 b
The ETF was also weak, bleeding $251 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of outflow.
On September 25th (ET), the US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a total net outflow of $258 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT being the only fund to see net inflow. Spot Ethereum ETFS recorded a net runoff total of $251 million, marking its fourth consecutive day of outflow. pic.twitter.com/nmszjj2i6w
– WU Blockchain (@wublockchain) September 26, 2025
The losses slipped into a four-week low of $108,700 late Thursday, making market participants wonder if the $109,000 support would be retained.
The exhausted market
According to GlassNode, long-term Bitcoin holders have achieved over 3.4 million btc BTC in this cycle, approaching levels that are usually associated with the top of the market.
Analysts say this has created a “fatigue” effect, just as the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts curtailed expectations for updated flows.
From meetings to revisions#bitcoin LTHS recognizes 3.4m BTC in profit, indicating fatigue after FOMC as ETF inflows slowed. Due to weak Spot and Futures, the 111k STH cost base has a critical support or risk drawback.
Find out more under On-Chain for the Recent Week pic.twitter.com/aq9lemd72y
– GlassNode (@GlassNode) September 25, 2025
10x researcher Markus Thielen warned that the market is at risk of deeper revisions. It warned that Bitcoin revisited its low of $107,500 in early September, and that a stop loss sale would likely trigger.
“Many people are located for the fourth quarter meeting. Instead of making the bigger surprise higher, they make corrections instead,” Tyren pointed out.
Binance data suggests controlled corrections
Despite sales pressure, data from Binance, an exchange for the deepest bitcoin liquidity, suggests that the decline is still within the natural corrections.
Bitcoin has dropped by about 10%-11% from the all-time high of $122K-124K, deeper than the pullbacks close to past cycles, but relatively shallower compared to the historic crash.
Cryptoquant analysts said that unless Bitcoin decisively breaks support from $109,000 to $110,000 with a drawdown of over 15%, the base case remains integrated beyond support, with a retest of $118,000 to $122,000 continuing.
Vinanence: Bitcoin Cycle Drawdown | Source: Cryptoquant
This cycle is not like the retail-driven 2017 boom or the volatile 2021 run, but like a hybrid fueled and cooled by liquidation in facilities.
According to GlassNode, the used output profit margin (SOPR) is just above 1.01.
Meanwhile, the short-term holder NUPL indicator is hovering near zero, warning of forced liquidation as new investors reduced their losses.
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A crypto journalist with over five years of experience in the industry, Perth has worked with leading media outlets in the Crypto and Finance world, gathering experience and expertise in this field after surviving the bear and bull market for many years. Perth is also the author of four self-published books.
Parth Dubey on LinkedIn